Ukrainians in Munich: hope for conflict resolution
Yuliia Shcheglova and her friend Svitlana Kapitanchuk are very worried about their relatives. The two women, 33 and 30 years old, are studying in Munich – their families live in the Ukraine. Yuliia’s mother is only a two-hour drive from the crisis region. She says in the political magazine Kontrovers that she is very afraid for her mother: “She is there alone and so is my grandmother.” The information situation is difficult, the news contradictory.
The feeling that something could happen at any moment dominates the everyday life of the two students. “We just saw on the news: evacuation plan of the population in the capital Kiev. That’s very sad,” says Svitlana. Then they reach Yuliia’s mother by phone. From her they learn that the mood in Julia’s hometown is calm. “As if nothing happened, people are not panicking,” says Yuliia. The two students breathe a sigh of relief.
First signs of relaxation on the border with Ukraine
Is it a deceptive calm? An attack would be possible at any time, diplomacy is in full swing. At the same time, a lot has already been gained. After a long diplomatic radio silence, Russia and the NATO countries are talking to each other again. Chancellor Scholz met both Ukrainian President Zelenskyi and Russian President Putin this week. The first signs of relaxation can be seen: Russia has announced that it will withdraw troops and Russian television is showing corresponding images.
Uncertainty as to whether war has been averted
No one can say whether this will avert war. One person who doesn’t believe in war is the Russian cameraman Vladimir Müller. He has lived in Germany for 22 years, his wife’s family lives in Russia, near the Ukrainian border. The tense situation takes him away. But he says he can understand Putin’s strategy: Russia doesn’t feel taken seriously by the other world powers, and the frustration is great. “In my opinion, there will be no war. This is a geopolitical-strategic game by the Russian government to get the conversation going again.”
Ukrainian fights at the diplomacy of the Munich Security Conference
At the press conference after the meeting between Putin and Scholz, it became clear that Ukraine’s NATO accession is the worst-case scenario for Russia. Gwendolyn Sasse, scientific director at the Center for East European and International Studies, explains it like this: “Russia’s domestic policy is closely linked to foreign policy and one would like to trap the political counter-model of Ukraine, namely democratization and a western orientation, too close to oneself let it come.”
From the Russian point of view, a westward orientation of Ukraine must be prevented by all means. Russia has gathered 130,000 soldiers on the border with Ukraine, as well as heavy equipment that is wanted. Nevertheless, there is still hope that the diplomatic negotiations will be successful. That’s what Ukrainian student Yuliia is waiting for: “I attach great importance to the security conference that is taking place here in Munich. That the conflict can be resolved there.”
Security conference probably without Russia
So far, however, the Russian leadership has refused to take part in the Munich Security Conference, which took place from February 18-20. US Vice President Kamala Harris and Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz as well as around 35 other heads of state and government are expected. Two years ago, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov traveled to the meeting.