Bulgaria is trapped between Russian forces in Nis and a US base in Kos …
– Prof. Altankov, is the Bulgarian position on the conflict between Russia and NATO balanced?
– We are very bad. Of all the 30 NATO countries, reliable information has come out for us only in authoritative Western publications such as The Economist, The Wall Street Journal, that Bulgaria does not want to take part in hostilities.
It is inadmissible for the Minister of Defense Stefan Yanev to make exactly how many battalions I will have, what he will not be in the country with, what he will not be with.
In the game that is being played, Bulgaria has a very high stakes, and no one is talking about the threats to us. Only 90 km from our border, in Serbia, there are Russian military forces. There are two emergency response battalions in Nis. They have helicopters and the most modern missiles. Who can stop Russian planes from increasing the available two Russian battalions to 20?
Even worse, just 30km from Nis, Kosovo is the largest US Bondsteel base. It was built for 40,000 people, but currently has less than 2,000 troops. Ie at a very close distance around us are the military forces of two countries, which are currently in serious conflict.
– Are the fears that we are on the verge of World War III exaggerated? Will there be a real war, or will we get away with brandishing weapons?
– There will be no third world war, but there will be a war. It will most likely be local, it will be managed very carefully. It will most likely happen after the end of February, after the Beijing Winter Olympics. It seems that an agreement has been reached between Russia and China. By the way, keep in mind that the special Olympics are the years of turmoil and unrest – this was the case with the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008. In 2014, when Russia entered Crimea, you have the Winter Olympics in Sochi.
But there is still cyber warfare, verbal attacks, ultimatums, considered types of prelude to war, even as the beginning of hostilities.
The current tension on Ukraine’s borders leads to the conclusion that the war has begun, but so far it is being fought by other means, not at the front, with tanks, cannons, planes. But you can get there.
– Will we witness the hostilities on the territory of Ukraine?
“Troops are gathered there.” It is particularly worrying that Russian troops have been gathering in Belarus for several days, along with state-of-the-art equipment, including medium-range missiles. Almost all of Ukraine is surrounded – there are Russian troops to the south, east, north.
US President Joe Biden seems more militant than his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky. However, the spirit has already come out of the bottle.
But it is no longer a question of understanding between Ukraine and Russia, between Moscow and Washington
There are no direct skirmishes between Russia and the United States in the history of Europe and the world since 1945, with the exception of the Caribbean crisis in 1963. This situation became hot for days and the latter died down. Something similar is expected to happen now, but Putin probably thinks otherwise. And the Americans seem convinced that a possible dispute with Russia will escalate into a long-term, ongoing smoky and boiling conflict.
– Who is interested in the escalation of tension at the moment?
– Ukraine obviously does not want to, because it is doomed to be a springboard in case of war. And she has a bitter experience from World War II, when she suffered huge losses, perhaps 70 percent of the losses of the former Soviet Union were suffered on Ukrainian territory.
But if Putin and Biden have decided that it is in the interests of their peoples to argue,
to have a strained relationship on the brink of war, so be it.
It is not entirely clear about Putin’s goals, but American policy goals are kept at the status quo – to remain a world leader, as they have been for at least the past 30 years.
This is very convenient for Washington. The United States does not have a military strategy that requires the whole world to be ruled by them. You will be able to sell your goods to America to as many people as possible because it is an exporting country. The United States does not want to kill people outside the country – on the contrary, they see everyone outside of America as a potential customer of their goods from whom they can profit.
– Doesn’t Putin want to raise his rating in Russia with a demonstration of force?
– As his main goal – no. Putin enjoys widespread support in Russia, and this government is not in danger. At the same time, he skillfully justifies his actions. By the way, each aggressor claims that he was attacked. The Russian media is constantly saying that Russia is under threat. However that
Russia itself has amassed more than 100,000 troops along its borders with Ukraine.
But do not overestimate Putin, he is a man like us, who believes that he is doing everything for the good of Russia. We do not think so, but according to Russians who love him en masse, he takes care of them.
If my guess is correct, Putin does not want a war, but aims for a situation like the one in Bosnia and Herzegovina to exist throughout Ukraine – like a state. We are talking about Moldova, as well as Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Poland, which joined NATO after 1997. In my opinion, Putin wants these countries to be something like a big swamp, where more the strong rule at will.
Russia does not want to border anyone, said the great Polish thinker Adam Michnik years ago. These attitudes have not changed. Today, Russia borders 16 countries officially recognized by the United Nations. And wants to be absolutely sure of its borders, some of which are to be protected naturally from the aforementioned swamp, inhabited by people dependent on the will of Moscow.
– Will Russia ever swallow Ukraine’s membership in NATO?
– Today’s Russia does not swallow it. A separate question is whether the Russian people would be willing to sacrifice, to wage war, to shed blood for the pursuit of a goal that may not be deserved.
According to opinion polls, 52% of Russians see Ukrainians as friends, and only 11% consider them enemies.
There are also a lot of ethnic Russians in Ukraine – as many as 17 percent. In the last 10 years, more than 1.2 million Ukrainians have gone to Russia to work. The knot is complicated, but the average Russian and Ukrainian have little to share. I do not see who can instill in Ukrainians a fierce hatred of the Russians to the point of asking them to kill them.
– Will the deployment of NATO troops, prepared by President Joe Biden, ensure the security of Eastern Europe?
– No, 8,500 people will not guarantee the security of NATO’s eastern flank. But Biden needs such action to show determination and thus speed up the ongoing negotiations between the United States and Russia. All this is to avoid the current conflict and return to the status quo as soon as possible.
– What are the adequate reactions from our country, given the disturbing facts you are studying?
– A note had to be handed to the Russian ambassador in Sofia, in response to the statement of their first diplomat Sergei Lavrov that Bulgaria and Romania must surrender to NATO and relinquish power. This statement is on our encroachment on sovereignty. In the good old days, such ultimatums were even considered a pretext for war. We have a confident country, a member of the authoritative national body, including the EU and NATO.
No one has the right to behave like that with us
Our ambassador to Russia had to return to Sofia, until a satisfactory response is received from Moscow.
I am aware that this will not happen, but he cannot count on NATO alone to protect us. We saw how sharply the Romanians reacted to Lavrov’s words, and we even refused help from the French and the Dutch.
– What to expect in the near future?
– The country’s progress in Russia continues, which has been monitored for the last 10-15 years. Moscow is opposed to armed missiles in the area, with borders. But she herself fired missiles at Kaliningrad, in central Germany. It used to be called Koenigsberg. And no one in Germany is doing anything about it.
Prof. Nikola Altankov is a Bulgarian scientist and politician, Doctor of History and Professor at the University of California, Santa Barbara. Master of Arts from the Monterey Institute of Foreign Studies. Member of the New York Academy of Political Science and the Delta Tau Kapa Primary Society. Son of the Plovdiv lawyer Georgi Altankov. Political immigrant from 1965 to 1995 in the United States, where he taught at American universities and worked in research institutes. He has published several books in Bulgaria, including “History of the Bulgarian Communist Party 1919-1989”, which reveals unknown facts from our recent history.