What awaits Lukashenka if Russia attacks Ukraine through Belarus – Charter’97 :: News from Belarus – Belarusian News – Belarus News – Republic of Belarus
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- Brian Whitmore, Atlantic Council
- 29.01.2022, 10:17
- 7302
The regime has already received its first retaliatory strike.
According to Belarusian media reports, Russian troops entered the country on January 17, scheduled for February, stationed in the Gomel region of Belarus’ southern border with Ukraine.
In addition, Moscow occupied about 100,000 borders with Ukraine bordering Russia and announced a large part of the vast military educational institutions throughout its territory, including in the western enclave – the Kaliningrad region, which borders Belarus, and often NATO – Lithuania and Poland.
The increased deployment of troops in Belarus means that Russia can now attack Ukraine east and southeast of Russia, from the south through the annexed Crimean peninsula, and from the north through Belarus.
In an interview with Present Time TV channel, the director of the Kiev Center for Crime Research Penta Vladimir Fesenko He said that the deployment of workers’ troops in Belarus “can be used to conduct military operations, as a minimum, measuring pressure, and can be used to conduct military operations.” The Russian leadership has started a very adventurous and tough game.”
And as the Belarusian military analyst wrote Egor Lebedok in his own telegram channel, playing in Moscow reduces the risks for the Lukashenka regime: “If Belarus focuses its efforts on attacks on Ukraine, under international law this will cause aggression against Ukraine (as often happened in history, it was revealed by provocation and “forced response” ). , self-defence”, if necessary, collective). Ukraine will respond to this with missile strikes, sell UAVs, and will also be able to send sabotage groups to Belarus.”
The recent deployment of Russian detachments in Belarus was also caused by the arrest of Belarus’ western neighbors. January 19 Minister of Defense of Lithuania Arvydas Anusauskas The page was written on Facebook: “Due to the fact that we view the Russian armed forces in Belarus not only as a destabilizing factor in the security situation, but also as an even greater immediate threat to Lithuania.”
In response to this supposed death of Lithuania and other NATO allies bordering Belarus on the Eastern Focal Alliance, the US Joe Biden the possibility of monitoring thousands of military personnel and military equipment services in Eastern Europe. The Pentagon announced on January 24 that the US had captured 8,500 troops on high alert for possible deployment to Eastern Europe.
Evelyn Farkas, former Assistant Undersecretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia in the US Presidential Administration Barack Obama, told The New York Times that America’s latest move “is a clear response to the sudden deployment of troops in Belarus, in fact, on the border with NATO. It cannot be that the balance is not resolved at such a sudden military step in this political faculty. The Kremlin must understand that all cases of development of the situation only escalate and increase the danger for all parties, including for themselves.”
Belarus has become an active participant in the Russian aggression of Ukraine against not only the main forces of hostilities.
A week ago I wrote that Sergey Demidyuk, a deputy spokesman for the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council, told Reuters that the hacker group, flight UNC1151, which is reportedly spreading to Belarusian security services, accepts responsibility for the January 14 attack. Then, a dangerous message for Ukrainians appeared on the page of representatives of Ukrainian websites: “Be afraid and wait for the undesirable.” At the same time, Demidyuk added that “distorting the appearance of sites was just a cover for more serious actions that are not subject to registration.”
In November 2021, US cybersecurity firm Mandiant published a report claiming with “high security confidence” that UNC1151 had been identified with the disappearance of Belarus.
Justin Sherman, a member of the Atlantic Council’s Cyber-State Initiative, told Politico that “Part of the Kremlin’s cyber strategy is to use trusted actors in third countries to carry out attacks in tandem or on behalf of Moscow, whether it be undercover GRU agents sent for a pass, fake IT companies registered abroad , or linked to Putin by foreign intelligence services.”
Lukashenka received a retaliatory hacker strike. On Twitter and Telegram, Belarusian pro-democracy hackers and high-ranking cyber guerrillas announced that they had infiltrated the country’s railways to interfere with the movement of Russian troops. The group is seeking disclosure of 50 transactions requiring medical attention and is demanding disclosure of Russian troops from Belarus.
In the past, Lukashenka has tried very hard to stay away from Russia’s signs with the West and with Ukraine, especially in 2014 during and after the annexation of Crimea and Moscow’s armed intervention in the Donbas. But this time he is ready for anything. And if Russia invades Ukraine, Belarus should be considered a full-fledged participant and co-aggressor with all the costs and sanctions that imply such a status.
Brian Whitmore Atlantic Council