Sweden, Finland at the forefront when old fears grow over Russian expansionism
Because Putin has his eyes on the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea is also particularly comfortable for him
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For several years, Russian President Vladimir Putin has upgraded and tested his country’s military arsenal, while at the same time blaming Ukraine and denying any plans to expand to nearby territories in Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
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But these countries are holding on. They have noted increasingly bold Russian military movements – with heavier equipment – in wider and wider strings.
Ukraine is currently on the world radar as the country and its allies prepare for the possibility of an invasion, but as much as Putin is eyeing the Black Sea for its access to the Mediterranean and the Atlantic, the Baltic Sea is also particularly convenient for him, as its easternmost bay turns on the doorstep of St. Petersburg.
The ports and coastlines of the Baltic countries are attractive destinations for the Russian navy, perhaps to expand its huge military port in Kaliningrad, a small but industrially important Russian satellite province between Poland and Lithuania, both of which are NATO members. Kaliningrad is home to a large Russian shipping base, which puts Sweden on the edge of security on its old defense island of Gotland, which is only 300 kilometers north. As Louise Nordström points out france24.com “whoever controls Gotland has free access to the Baltic countries.”
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Several Russian warships have recently moved into Baltic Sea waters from Kaliningrad, reports France24, some of them coming unusually close to Sweden, but are now reported to have departed. Russia has also been said to have sent large drones over the country’s three nuclear power plants and some airports, and its submarines have been spotted plying the waters of the Baltic Sea.
The latest warship movements touched a nerve and Sweden – a country with only 10 million – quickly sent soldiers and equipment to Gotland, and 10 days ago the Swedish intelligence service the Security Police said that they had taken over the investigation of the drone flights.
Russia may feel extra courageous to move west, as neither Finland nor Sweden are members of NATO. The two are cooperating militarily and are still said to be considering joining the alliance – albeit not imminently – although Sweden’s Foreign Minister Ann Linde and her Finnish counterpart Pekka Haavisto met on Monday with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in Brussels to discuss their “deepening partnership”.
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In line with Ukraine’s stance on determining its own NATO future, Finnish President Sauli Niinistö told the European Council on Foreign Relations in his New Year Speech that “Finland’s room for maneuver and freedom of choice also include the possibility of military adaptation and applying for NATO membership, if we so decide.” he repeated that position when he called Russian President Vladimir Putin last week to discuss European security.
Russia would be the only negative vote if Finland applied for NATO membership
Russia would be the main reason for Finland to join NATO, stated Hanna Ojanen from the European Council on Foreign Relations, at the same time as it was the main reason why the country did not join. Russia would be the only negative voice if Finland applied for membership in NATO, but it would raise old concerns even if the Finnish Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 2016 predicted an initial sharp Russian reaction followed by tacit consent and possible acceptance.
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Sweden and Finland have a long-standing concern for Russia, which stems from long wars. For much of the 17th century, Sweden and Russia fought for control of the Baltic Sea, and Stockholm even supported Ukrainian opposition to Russian rule. Russia took control of Finland from Sweden in 1809 and ruled it until Finland declared independence in 1917. The Winter War of 1939 saw the small Nordic country outsmart the giant Russian army as it tried to add territory to its western border. The era of the Cold War in Finland’s border areas was particularly long and nerve-wracking for the inhabitants, who at any time feared a new attack from their insulted neighbor.
Observations of Russian submarines are considered to be almost equal to the course in Sweden and Finland, as they have occurred since the Second World War, during the Cold War and sometimes in the years since.
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Malin Rising, a Swedish journalist who grew up in the coastal town of Nynäshamn, recalled the tensions. “I remember how my friends and I climbed the cliffs and looked out over the Baltic Sea to see if we could see any (Russian) submarines,” she told France24 in the 1980s. “That was exactly how we played then,” she said.
“I also remember people discussing where to find the nearest bomb shelter if the Russians came.”
As fears subsided after the end of the Cold War, Sweden’s mandatory military conscription program in 2010 was put on hold. But just seven years later, after Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula and increased military activity near Sweden, the program was revived, and the government also began to invest heavily in Gotland’s military presence to strengthen national and regional defenses.
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Should Russia try to attack Baltic NATO countries, the members of the alliance would be obliged to come to their defense.
France24 spoke to an area expert on the issue.
– To help their allies, the Americans would need to send over jet planes – quickly – and fly over the Baltic Sea, says Magnus Christiansson, researcher in military strategy at the Swedish National Defense College. “But if the Russians gained control of Gotland, they could use anti-aircraft missiles and coastal robots, making it extremely difficult for the Americans to reach and defend the Baltics.”
Christiansson said that a Russian takeover of the Baltic states would be devastating for the world order. “It would totally crush NATO’s credibility, there would be nothing left of it, because it is based on Article 5, ‘All for one, one for all,'” he said.
But he also added that if the Russians were behind the reported drone flights, it would most likely have been an attempt to scare the Swedes. “This is just a really cheap way to get someone off balance. It’s psychological.”
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