TVI/CNN Portugal poll: Costa increases distance to Rio but absolute majority, BE ahead of Chega
Costa who said if he lost the most exits will win them, says the TVI/CNN poll. If he complies with what he said, he will head the Government but he will have to negotiate because he won’t have the majority that he asks for. Enough quadruples votes but is below BE, the third political force. CDS-PP has no end with the worst result ever
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António Costa was already an absolute majority, but this is still far away. Two weeks after the elections, with the start of the election, the socialists are still ahead in voting intentions, but with no margin to reach an absolute majority, according to the result of a poll by Pitag and CNN Portugal. That is, on the 30th, everything can be the same.
However, it is not all news for the socialists who, coming out in this election, will not be able to govern without coalitions or agreements. According to this poll, the PS rises in voting intentions compared to December, while the PSD falls. The gap between the last two increased from 5.3 percentage points in the month of the year to 9.6 percentage points in January. Therefore, if the legislative struggles were today, António Costa would win with 39.6% and Rui Rio would occupy second position, being defeated with 30% of the votes.
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The dispute for third place on the political podium is between Bloco de Esquerda and Chega. Catarina Martins wins the arm of iron, obtaining 6.4% of the voting intentions. André Ventura chose 5.7% of the voting intentions in this Pittagórica poll. It should be noted that between December and January this barometer recorded an increase of 1.5 percentage points for the candidate of the BE and a slight decrease of 0.6 percentage points for the candidate of the radical right. In view of the 2019 election results, the Bloco holds the badge of the third most voted force, but with a result far below the 9.5% of votes won in that election. On the contrary, André Ventura’s party quadruples the number of votes (but fails the objective of the third political force), since in the last Legislative it did not go beyond 1.29% of the votes won in the ballot box.
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CDU and Iniciativa Liberal appear tied in this poll, both with 5.1% of voting intentions. For the electoral coalition between communists and greens, this result demonstrates a drop in voting (they got 6.33% of the votes in 2019). And see what happens with Jerónimo de Sousa missing part of the campaign due to surgery. However, for liberals this poll multiplies by four votes that were characteristic of the latest findings.
The PAN appears above the CDS-PP, the party that, in this poll, is the least voted among the current parliamentary representation. Inês Sousa Real reaches 1.8% of voting intentions (and, thus, slips from the 3.32% achieved in 2019) and Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos does not go beyond 1.5% of voters – a vertiginous drop compared to 4.22% of the votes that the party had in 2019. The popular ones are the least popular in this poll.
In response to the question whether Minister António Costa should be replaced, 47% should be re-elected and 44% in this scenario should be replaced, 77% consider that the PSD should govern. In the dichotomy between socialists and social democrats, regardless of voting intentions, 71% of those questioned believe that if they left today, PS António Costa would win. And only 15% believe that Rui Rio would have a chance of winning.
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In the chess of an eventual coalition or political agreement, the electorate is clear in preferring that it should govern whoever wins as choices – even if without a majority. This is what 58% of those questioned think, against 38% who think that whoever had the majority support should govern.
In this poll, 68% think that the President of the Republic should swear in the new government, if this agreement can agree with parliamentarians that the President of the Republic should swear in the new government. And, in an almost absolute scenario, as it seems that will happen, António Costa’s opinions on whether they should occur, and BE’s, a government per se is likely. 39% with the presence of communist or green ministers and 40% have a favorable opinion of the existence of blocist ministers. In a scenario of ministers accepting a government Initiative although by Rui Rio, but only 17% the existence of ministers of acceptance in an Executive, this is not even possible on the table for the leader of the PSD.
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Other Pythagorean indicators are projected to the PS. Therefore, António Costa has a stronger vote, reinforcing this indicator with one percentage point compared to December. In the opposite direction, Rui Rio sees a percentage of firmness in the vote and three percentage points increase by one point. Regarding the rejection of votes, both António Costa and Rui Rio show the same level of rejection, but André Ventura is the candidate with the greatest rejection – an increase of 21 percentage points compared to 2019.
DATASHEET
UNIVERSE:
The sexes, registered in Portugal of masters and aged 18 or over, were surveyed.
PITAGÓRICA, Pesquisa e Estudos de Mercado SA used this study to collect data through a telephone interview, supported by a CATI – Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing system, with automatic validation and in the Auto Dial system.
COLLECTION OF INFORMATION:
A non-probabilistic age was used, fulfilling quotas by sex and age.
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Amóvel dos principals was carried out through the random generation of “tele” numbers, maintaining the proportion of the 3 main operators. In less than 200 interviews, randomly selected network contacts were used, in a way achieved with the identified acquisition quotas.
SAMPLE:
The sample was obtained from 600 errors, this value reflects a confidence level of 95.5% with a margin of +- 4.08%.
The collection of information was the responsibility of Pitagórica.
The sample was collected between December 30 and January 9, 2022.