Global leaders say the biggest risks facing the world are social and environmental. And Portugal?
Social risks were those that grew the most during the pandemic and that cast a shadow over the future of the planet, but environmental issues form another great dark horizon cloud, accuse political leaders, in a report by the World Economic Forum published this week. In the same document, entitled “Global Risks Report”, Portuguese leaders point out five different main social issues, leaving out the receptions in relation to the climate.
The World Economic Forum accounts take into account the decision-making of a group of businesses, entrepreneurs, managers, in consideration of civil society, with a total of more than 900 participants.
next five years, “environmental and environmental risks as the most worrying”, reads the executive of the Risk Report And these two risks feed each other. “We cannot dissociate. social risks are largely due to the environmental ones”, he says to the Express Fernando Chaves, risk specialist at Marsh McLennan Portugal – one of FEM’s partners in the preparation of the report, as well as the Zurich Insurance Group. And underline that “many economic things that come to be the scope of environmental measures will have a very strong economic, social and geopolitical impact”.
The relationship is simple, according to Edgar Lopes, risk manager at Zurich Portugal. Weather episodes can have an effect on a vassal and imply the inheritance or migration of extreme people. They can shake value chains. More the differences between developed and underdeveloped countries, in the capacity that each one has to deal with the situations.
At the same time, adds Fernando Chaves, “the normal economy no longer lives once it can happen, but it can make the environment where we can reach, many times, catastrophic events that cannot allow access in situations of catastrophic events, which can make to be taken in The environmental module will have a very strong economic, social and geopolitical impact”. Cutting with the same coal and other fossils is an example
This really sounds like the story of the chicken or the egg: if environmental measures have economic and therefore social consequences, but at the same time serve to avoid more serious social problems, how to face this dilemma? “If we are only concerned with the economic component without looking at the environment, the planet may respond with events and risks that will be out of control”, defends Fernando Chaves. In this sense, he understands that courage and wisdom are needed in the measures. Society has become accustomed to a lifestyle that it will have to give up, in part, in the short term, “if we want to have a planet in the medium and long term”, he says. And he believes that environmental exercises, in the long term, will be positive for the quality of life.
For now, “the most serious erosion of health”. And the “sufficient number action sentence” is identified as a long-term global level, while earning or risky title with significant impacts in terms of longer term at close levels. But also in the list of short-term risks it appears in third place, while the first is occupied by “extreme weather”. They are separated by “they are separated from the subsistence place with “erosion and the closed social room”. Up to five years old, they occupy the top places, but the social climate issues are imposed at the front of the seats.
Climate “passes by” the Portuguese. Cyber threats fade in the eyes of the world
The Portuguese participating in the report identify five risks as the main ones in the short term, and none are related to the climate. The list contains prolonged economic stagnation such as major debt crises, employment crises, digital economy and recovery or lack of social security systems. The weather does not appear. “It’s strange”, Edgar Lopes, recalling that Portugal is pointed out as one of the countries that could suffer most from climate change.
“In the shortest time, the other risks ended up gaining more importance. Portugal is the last of the fires, but the most serious in terms of the number of deaths. previous reports, the environmental factors in greater force”, justifies Fernando Chave
But won’t this distancing from environmental risks harm the country in its future? Edgar Lopes believes that there is a compensation. Firstly, the criteria for association with the Recovery and Resilience Plan funds, secondly, the growing prominence of the social, governance and financial worlds, and finally, the requirement of new generations of thematic generators.
However, it is not only at the national level that some risks are unique. The average blind at the level, but appear critical between the terms “digital inequality” and “cybersecurity” – also identified as medium risks at the short-term level, “points signaling a possible” “in risk perceptions”, reads the summary. , which says that “the threats to cybersecurity on the rise – in 2020, malware and ransomware increased by 358% and 435%”.
“Artificial intelligence”, “exploitation of the sometimes”, “cross-border and area cyberattacks where most movements believe the current state of risk mitigation exercises is below the challenge.
There is a new risk to consider
“Space exploration appeared a few years ago, we had similar reports – the WEF has been doing them annually for 17 years – as a ‘future shock’. “Today it is no longer just a potential risk, it is a fact that space is now on the agenda”, points out Fernando Chaves, to reinforce: “It is a chapter to which we must pay particular attention, it is not science fiction”. This one is not among the top 10 risks in any time horizon, but it is starting to be mentioned. With limited and outdated global regulatory leadership in space and, in parallel, diverging policies at the national level, the stakes are intensifying, the report tells us.
Among the problems raised, it should be noted that the increase in spatial activity can either lead to environmental impacts of public goods, such as an increase in the weather or a monitoring of unknown spatial changes. A greater number and variety of operators in the space industry can generate friction if the exploration and exploitation of space is not managed responsibly. Issues such as defense and telecommunications may also be compromised by mismanagement of space.
In the midst of so many risks, it’s easy to be pessimistic. The report that points out only 16% of respondents. But risk doesn’t have to be negative – it can be seen as an opportunity, these experts point out. It’s-using them to improve, says Edgar Lopes.
On the other hand, the pandemic served to increase the degree of awareness for risk management to become more preventive than reactive and “demonstrated that despite the differences, an event occurs on a global scale, in a certain way on a global scale we also respond” , stresses Fernando Chave, who believes that this level of problems that have been described here is necessary – and difficult – but underlines that local action should not be abandoned.