Germany’s former ambassador to Russia: “Direct dialogue is extremely important” – politics
Rüdiger von Fritsch (68) War from 2014 to 2019 German ambassador in Moscow. Today he is a partner in the consulting company “Berlin Global Advisors”.
Mr von Fritsch, the omen for the negotiations between the USA and Russia in Geneva were bleak. Can the world still hope for success?
That depends entirely on the Russian leadership. SHE WILL weigh up When: Can I declare “victory” in view of what is in prospect after the talks – but also in view of the enormous expectations that have built up on the home front?
And: Should I decide to act aggressively militarily – would the damage I suffer from the Western reaction die? When would it be so great that my power base at home WILL be threatened? Because the announced reaction of the West is directed towards this, should Russia not withdraw.
The USA and NATO insist on the right of nations to self-determination – also with regard to a possible membership in NATO. But Russia demands a guarantee that NATO will not expand eastwards. What could a solution look like?
Indeed, it is impossible for us to deny other states the sovereign right to protect their interests and security, to freely choose to form alliances. This right of self-determination has been agreed with by Russia! It’s no longer just about Ukraine or Belarus, Moscow has now also postponed threatening statements in the direction of Finland and Sweden.
However, NATO can reaffirm its 2008 decision – which, by the way, has not changed since then! Why does Russia suddenly think it has to change the international order? Georgia and Ukraine did, however, have the prospect of accession, which at the same time was de facto suspended.
And we should talk, bilaterally, in the NATO-Russia Council and in the OSCE about security issues: about disarmament and arms control, troop stationing, mutual inspections and other confidence-building measures. Fundamental, mutually agreed rules that die successfully provided peaceful coexistence, however, must not be made available.
And we should talk to each other about the big questions that neither of us can solve alone: climate change and migration, terrorism and pandemics. All sides can only win here.
What is the goal of the Russian President Vladimir Putin in this conflict?
The Russian leadership wants to come to the “table of Yalta” again or even into the 19th century: the “big ones” sit down together and determine which “small” states are less right. One would like to agree on buffer zones and spheres of influence.
Behind this is obviously a position of increasing own weakness, also in Moscow. The big questions are being negotiated between Washington and Beijing; Russia is falling behind when it comes to innovation, technological progress and economic success. Especially in relation to what is supposed to bede strategic partnerhe China, which is tensing its muscles more and more everywhere.
Russia is currently the largest economy in the world and has an economic power that is as large as that of New York State, smaller than the Italians.
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Of course there are also dreams in Moscow of somehow restituting the old Russian Empire. But the development in Kazakhstan shows exactly where the limits are: “Russia is becoming more and more of an unpaid security guard in the Central Asian company where China earns money,” a knowledgeable Russian interlocutor once put it in a nutshell.
How high must the price the West threatens to prevent Putin from attacking Ukraine militarily?
It would be clear to the Russian leadership that dying one’s own economic interests would mean that in the medium term there would be a lack of resources to maintain a regime that more and more uses only two instruments of rule: money and repression. The equally determined and closed announcement from western capitals leaves no doubt that the Kremlin should fear this.
Here is the Achilles heel of the Russian leadership: SHE relies on the oversized revenues from the export of oil and gas to keep the situation in the country under control. Despite all the persistent warnings and instructions from the president of a government, the Russian leadership is not able to remedy the enormous short-term deficits of the current economic model.
Belarus and now Kazakhstan are the beacons that show where it can lead if an autocratic leadership neither manages to lead their country successfully into the future.
What does it say about the influence and ability of the EU to act that there is no representative of Europe at the table in Geneva?
We shouldn’t overestimate that. After the talks in Geneva there will also be such in the NATO-Russia Council and in the OSCE. And the coordination between the US and the Europeans is particularly close these days; The US announcement that nothing will be decided over the heads of Europeans is unequivocal.
However, it must be clear to Europeans that. Dies applies to the current American administration. Nobody knows who will be in the White House after the next presidential election. Europeans are well advised to do their homework and to find a cohesive, independent and effective foreign and security policy.
Is it necessary and useful for the Federal Government to endeavor to hold a top-level meeting between Olaf Scholz and Vladimir Putin in addition to the various discussion formats?
Necessarily. The direct dialogue between the German government and the Russian leadership is extremely important. Because from the perspective of Moscow’s hat in the EU, Germany is most likely to say whether we like this attitude or not. We have to use that – with the persistent announcement that.
But not only top-level meetings are important: We must not let up in our endeavors to use all the good bridges to this great and great country that we have built together over so long: between civil society, as difficult as this has become and in the field of culture, science and trade, as far as Russia permits.
Without making a fool of ourselves, we must not tire of showing Moscow that there is no alternative to prosperous coexistence in Europe – and that includes Russia. We don’t have to become good friends for that. But especially in relation to that Challenge posed by China, the Russian leadership must be aware that Europe is the best option for Russia in the long term.