Opinion: Slow burying of Lukashenka will be accelerated – Charter’97 :: News from Belarus – Belarusian news – News from Belarus – Republic of Belarus
A new reality came to Belarus with the roar of fireworks.
The New Year passed under an undeniably significant “roar of fireworks”. All Minsk was one big and, most importantly, one, so everyone again saw that like-minded people can be found in every, in almost every apartment, writes the Telegram channel cynic…
It was fantastic. Moreover, the whole of Belarus was filled with fireworks and an atmospheric holiday. The long, monotonous, minor reality is finally replaced even in the most remote areas. Unity and joy kill fear.
As we managed to cut down the gratings from the windows, the atomization of society could not destroy the atmosphere of unity.
It’s time to introduce a new starting point. Strategic relations between the Russian Federation and the United States will be during the January “security” dialogues.
To be honest, the word “security” should really be removed from the meetings of the Russian leadership with the Americans, NATO and Europe.
Let’s add a few important details about Ukraine and introduce Belarus to the agenda.
1) During the conversation about security, both sides actually do not act on any forms of “”, except for the Ukrainian case (There is also a Georgian one, but it is still as “spare” as possible).
2) Regarding the war with Ukraine itself: the chance of a direct attack by Russia on Ukraine, as well as Russia on the territory of the LPNR, is close to zero.
The war is not considered as the final scenario: the threat of it is more effective in the “trump card” that will help you in the prepared Ukrainian army. , which can go to the Third World War, while the initiator does not have the resources and technologies necessary for the necessary (“doomsday weapon” and general death does not count).
The likelihood of solving the problem of the Donbass case through collective agreements.
Of the agreements themselves, a compromise will be found in the “Minsk Agreements” with an admixture of the Normandy Format clauses. The Americans themselves agree to both options, and even to the third (in the center between them), so soon the Ukrainian side will be informed that in the “Axis” “Moscow-Kiev-Washington” “side points” advocate a solution to the conflict, not freezing it … The next curator for the case will most likely be Yermak, who is convenient for both Moscow and Washington.
This confirms all our conclusions that the unprecedented ultimatum on collective security will be narrowed down to the issue with Ukraine.
This is what so far can be said from the preliminary findings.
3) The “Belarusian case” in this “agreement” was forgotten in vain.
This question slips into the document “in passing” without direct reference to itself, and the rotation of Ukraine proves that Belarus, as Fischer said, is guaranteed independence and sovereignty. There are American opinions on what the Americans consider independence and sovereignty in the context of Belarus – opinions differ.
So, administrative, territorial and political mergers are absolutely impossible. On economic issues, there are serious questions to key enterprises and the “market” in general.
They smile about the “road map” or “roaming deactivation card”, which is non-existent in the legal context of the word “harmonization”.
So “everything serious is unacceptable”, “everything not serious is allowed”, but it is so protracted and confused that in the end everything can end with the stamp “Harmonization was successful” on the roadbed. And that is all.
A serious and, in fact, the only “unification” that scares me is power harmonization, which is also not given to happen completely and finally because our “elites” sitting on “streams” will find it much easier to come to terms with any new government. than with the Kremlin. The latter will squeeze everything under himself – and this “curators” perfectly understand (though not all). I suspect that “surrender” the country militarily, that the “top” themselves will not give it, and the “lower classes” will catch up, because a military merger will be equal to the loss of sovereignty. Moreover, it is a challenge to the reaction of the West. So there is a huge “question mark”.
Oh yes – Lukashenka does not want to sign and execute anything at all, so for any compromises he will have to be pushed off the bayonets.
So what is the forecast for the upcoming talks on “security”.
1) Ukraine will have to solve the case with Donbass in a compromise manner. Or to pull the chewing gum though with the decision of the case for many months.
2) The case of Belarus is not put on the “front line”, therefore, the “Geneva status” will be recorded here, where mutual concessions are presented that do not contradict the principle of sovereignty, therefore “military harmonization”, unlike “military presence”, will be in the zone of maximum risk for “ban”. And administrative issues and political (public) authorities will not even be discussed. Here progress is impossible.
This situation of “slowly burying Lukashenka” will obviously be accelerated after the referendum, but how much depends on its consequences (but not the results).
3) All other questions on the “ultimatum” will be rejected by the western side unilaterally.