In January, the United States and Russia will hold talks on nuclear arms control in and around Ukraine. This should be followed by a NATO-Russia meeting. The future of Belarus largely depends on the results. 2022 promises to be interesting and disturbing for the entire Eastern European region.

On the eve of the New Year holidays, a telephone conversation took place between the presidents of the United States and Russia Joseph Biden and Vladimir Putin… As reported in the White House – on the initiative of the Russian side.

Washington understands Russia’s concerns, although it has its own. And President Biden is ready to continue the dialogue with Vladimir Putin. This is how the aide to the President of Russia briefly described the results of yesterday’s conversation Yuri Ushakov…

It is no coincidence that 2021 ends on the note of Russian-American relations. In its aspirations to restore the Russian Empire within its former borders as a maximum program, or at least to firmly bind the post-Soviet states to itself as a minimum program, Russia is constantly raising the stakes, provoking the United States and Europe. The current strategy of the Russian Federation can be briefly described as follows: constantly poke opponents with a stick, checking the boundaries of what is permitted. Therefore, you can go to a new round.

And now, after the occupation of Crimea and the “Donbasisation” of eastern Ukraine, the Kremlin is raising the stakes, demanding recognition of its “red lines”. Talk about your conditions to post-Soviet countries.

In fact, the Kremlin insists on the Yalta conference, at which in 1945 agreements were reached on the victory in the division of the new world between the countries. The “red lines” of Russia is a requirement to formally secure its right to control “its” part of the world. Which, of course, includes Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova.

From the outside, it looks like an attempt by the Russian leadership to return the 20th century with its geopolitical guidelines.
Russia handed over to the United States draft documents on guarantees of NATO’s non-expansion. The Kremlin is demanding from the United States a legal confirmation that the alliance will stop its advance to the East, and that Ukraine and Georgia will not be admitted to it. Plus NATO should deploy forces in Central and Eastern Europe. This is, so to speak, the public part of the requirements. There is certainly a “secret” part of the proposed deal – Moscow is unlikely to miss the chance to sign the new Molotov-Ribbentrop Protocol.

If, of course, she had such an opportunity.

With opportunities in modern Russia, everything is much worse than with desires. Who would not say anything in Moscow, but the sanctions on the supply of technologies, only increasing the backlog of Russia. This is largely due to the Kremlin’s pedaling of stress with the United States, and the severance of relations. Russia today is not the same as the USSR in 1945. Plus, every year Moscow’s position will only get worse. And this is understood not only in the Kremlin, but also in Washington and Brussels. The West, unlike Russia, has nowhere to rush. In essence, one could simply sit on the shore awaiting further events. If not for the “but”.

“But” lies in the constant provocations by the Kremlin. These are Russia’s attempts to create “gray regions” near the borders of other states – let us recall here both Transnistria, Luhansk and Donetsk. And the current military grouping at the Ukrainian borders.

By the way, Russia turned up and Belarus, with its problems after 2020. This is the kind of ally Moscow needs today. Who can say out loud what the Kremlin itself seems to be worthless, from whose territory it is possible to successfully put pressure on the EU with the migration crisis, gas threats. And if necessary, perhaps even use this territory for aggression against the same Ukraine. And in general, it is more pleasant to wage a war on foreign territory. It was namal by Peter I, who did not leave a stone unturned here during the Northern War.

These are the “buts” of the outposts, the West is being asked to react now. Further scenarios can be different. All Eastern Europe. And Belarus in the first place.

Our country has historically been unlucky to find itself next to such a neighbor as Russia. And the Belarusian cargo leadership, we found ourselves tied to the historically rotten Russian dreadnought. And we risk going to the bottom with him in some promising perspective. Belarus and Russia will answer. And this is the worst thing that could happen to us.

These are the results of 2021. Since the beginning of December, there have already been two telephone conversations between Biden and Putin. Negotiations are being prepared. What will the year 2022 bring? This largely depends on the toughness of the West’s position. In the medium and long term, the situation in the country may improve. But only after the Russian Federation becomes not up to Belarus because of its internal problems. The option in which Russia will be able to bargain for itself with the post-Soviet countries, which seems less realistic. In this case, the prospects for our country look rather bleak.

But in the short term, there is no good news for Belarus. In the coming months, she will clap her arms with the Kremlin. Together with him, demonstrating to the whole world that the 21st century has not come for everyone. It remains to be hoped that these dances with a tambourine will not have absolutely catastrophic consequences for both dancers. Looking forward to January-2022.

Happy New Year.

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The opinions and assessments of the author of the material may not coincide with the opinion of the Reform.by editorial staff.