what did we do wrong, but where, on the contrary, did we win? – Exclusive TSN – tsn.ua.
On New Year’s Day, December 30, Biden and Putin will resume talks on Ukraine and Russia’s “concern” over its NATO attack.
Traditionally, on the eve of the New Year, we sum up our own results of the passing year. Well, our task is to assess how Ukraine has lived this year, where we are on the world map, who helped us, and who, on the contrary, turned away from us, burying his head in the sand.
Poll of the Democratic Initiatives Foundation named after Ilka Kucheriva together with the Razumkov Center (until December 22) left only 20% of Ukrainians7 that events in Ukraine are moving in the right direction; in the wrong – 65.5%. At the same time, according to the poll “Sociological” Rating “(December 4 to 7), almost 40% of Ukrainians said they were satisfied with their lives, and more than 40% this year often experience stress.
During this year, Ukraine’s foreign policy has become more straightforward and demanding. If we used to talk uncertainly about our membership in the EU and NATO, now we have raised the bar, demanding clear guarantees. But the world has become tougher. Yes, we knew before that he was not Ukraine-centric. All services use their own national interests and then think about others. However, the events of the past year have made us look at Ukraine’s “friends” from a different angle: those who seemed to be reliable partners betrayed; others came to the rescue unexpectedly.
Summing up the foreign policy results of 2021 for Ukraine, TSN.ua collected the greatest achievements and failures, what can be written, and where, on the contrary, we have not worked.
Nord Stream-2
The Biden administration’s consent to the completion of the Russian-German gas industry has become a backbone not only for Ukraine but also for many Eastern European countries. The first rumors that the United States may ignore sanctions against Nord Stream 2, merging in February – a month after the inauguration of Joe Biden.
Then, amid the impeachment of Donald Trump over a telephone conversation with Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine was toxic to America. It is not surprising why Biden postponed Zelensky’s first call until April, which sang in a strange way with the first unprecedented gathering of Russian troops near the Ukrainian border. At the same time, Zelensky in his video appeals for the first time invited Putin to a personal meeting anywhere in Donbass.
As you can see, he met with Zelensky and Putin and is still there. What can you say about Biden. The 46th President of the United States managed to meet with Putin in person in Geneva, moving ahead of these sanctions against Nord Stream-2. Although Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states have warned Washington that such a decision would significantly weaken the security balance in Europe, the Biden administration has done so.
Everything we see has led to this – an acute energy crisis, the amount of gas in European hubs, the second unprecedented concentration of Russian troops near our borders and direct threats to leave Moscow not only against Ukraine. In the pursuit of better relations with Germany, which blocked the sale of weapons to Ukraine under Angela Merkel’s chancellorship, the Biden administration made a mistake that does not seem to be going to correct.
Belarus is the second front
According to a poll conducted by the Democratic Initiatives Foundation together with the Razumkov Center, Ukrainians named Volodymyr Zelensky a man of 2021. Petro Poroshenko, Dmytro Razumkov, Angela Merkel and Elon Musk shared the second place. But Joe Biden is only in third place.
However, some Ukrainians have forgotten to mention – this is Alexander Lukashenko. Although it was rather the biggest disappointment of the year. According to a poll conducted by the New Europe Center, only 29.4% trust the self-proclaimed President of Belarus. And two years ago, 67% of Ukrainians had a positive attitude towards Lukashenko.
For Ukrainians, Belarus has become not only the disappointment of the year, but also the second biggest security challenge after Russia, opening the second front. The Anschluss of Belarus by Russia has already taken place. Putin can use the territory of Belarus for a hybrid attack against Ukraine, so as not to face Western sanctions.
And not only against us. Initially, in late May, the Lukashenko regime hijacked a Ryanair Ryanair passenger plane and received it at Minsk airport only from its work, said Roman Protas, former editor-in-chief of NEXTA Telegram, who co-sponsored the Belarusian protests after the rigged August 2020 presidential election. not only a direct violation of international conventions governing passenger air traffic, but also the first act of piracy in the history of civil aviation – the hijacking of civilian aircraft.
Already in November, NATO and the EU are not all ready for a decisive response to Lukashenko, who is behind Putin, for a disgusting attack by the migrant crisis. All the world’s media covered footage of thousands of people from the Middle East storming the borders of Poland and the Baltic states. More than 10,000 people from the Middle East brought special “travel agencies” and charter flights to Belarus, which it is clear who financed. However, the EU used only precise sanctions against the Lukashenko regime, which then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel called twice to resolve the crisis.
Crimean platform
Ukraine’s undoubted victory in countering Russian aggression was the launch of the Crimean Platform, an international platform that will help bring the peninsula home.
TSN.ua has repeatedly written that under Petro Poroshenko’s presidency, international negotiations on the deoccupation of Crimea were a taboo: it was believed that if Kyiv initiates something like the Crimean platform, Russia will refuse to discuss even Donbass. Perhaps there is some truth in this. After all, now the Normandy and Minsk sites are in a dead end. However, this is not because of us – it is Russia that does not want the war to end.
The first Crimean platform coincided with the 30th anniversary of Ukraine’s independence: on August 23, representatives of 47 countries and international organizations arrived in Kyiv to remind Russia that it had redrawn the map of Europe for the first time since the war. Symbolically, it was on this day in 1939 that the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany concluded the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, which became the prologue to World War II.
The Crimean Platform office has been operating in Kyiv since August and is a member of the first institution to sign a joint declaration, which is open for accession. Yes, it has unpopular legal force, but it is the first international document since the illegal occupation of Crimea. Although the process has dragged on for a while, each signatory to the declaration has a representative, a high-ranking official, who is in charge of the deoccupation of Crimea in our country.
Reception at the White House
The most significant under the influence of autumn, which traditionally symbolizes the beginning of a new political season, was Zelensky’s visit to the United States. He was tolerated three times. Finally, on September 1, Joe Biden received Vladimir Zelensky at the White House. However, was there a personal chemistry between them? Probably not, and that’s why.
Firstly, given the almost year of Biden’s presidency, it can be said that his words, unfortunately, often diverge from action. There was nothing wrong with Biden first calling Putin a murderer and then meeting him in June in Geneva.
Second, Biden is definitely not the president of the “war”. And the chaotic people of Afghanistan who withdrew from the United States and their allies, it is clear that this American administration is coming to an end, even if the decision is not quite right.
Third, again, the same people from Afghanistan have revealed one more thing, and Ukraine should be taken into account. The United States will not forever help a country that does not want to help itself. including corruption, which Biden personally considers a threat to Ukraine’s national security alongside Russian aggression.
However, it seems that Bankova is not working effectively on American aid. Otherwise, the special anti-corruption prosecutor has long been recognized, without whose work NABU is simply blocked, and the Verkhovna Rada passed a new law on the SBU. During his visit to Kyiv in May, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken reminded the Ukrainian authorities of this.
Putin’s ultimatum
On Thursday, December 30, the day before the New Year, Biden will talk to Putin again. the possibility of a rose by phone at the request of the Kremlin master, and not by video, as it was on December 7. This conversation, apparently, will be a preparation for bilateral personal talks on January 10 on “security issues”. That’s what he said at the White House.
In fact, they will discuss Putin’s “wants”, which are mixed with common sense. The Russian region published them on December 17 in a pseudo-document “on the agreement between Moscow and Washington on security guarantees.” Among the many points of organization for Putin, there are only two: the non-accession of former Soviet countries to NATO, especially Ukraine; and the non-deployment of state-of-the-art weapons systems in Allied countries in the immediate vicinity of Russia’s borders.
The White House said that the talks on January 10 (it is unknown at this level) will focus on nuclear weapons control and the situation around Ukraine. And from the Kremlin, the redistribution of the sphere of influence on Europe, which is being discussed with the United States, is in no way represented at the table. Russia-NATO talks are also scheduled for January 12, and within the OSCE on January 13.
Ukraine clearly did not benefit from this. It all looks like a concession to Russia. Moscow itself created this security crisis on the European continent, surrounding Ukraine with its troops on all sides, and then demanded negotiations. And even if it’s a concession, what can Putin offer Biden in return? And most importantly, will Putin fulfill his part of the deal?