Portugal’s main challenges – Observer
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Political debate, particularly in this pre-electoral period, should focus on finding solutions to Portugal’s main problems and challenges. Escape from that responsibility and continue to devote most of the pre-election debate to coalition scenarios and make politics superfluous and contribute to the escalation of abstention.
In this sense, it is important that parties and the media focus on the following issues and challenges:
- The aging of the population, with a synthetic fertility rate of 1.4 children per woman and an aging rate of 182 elderly people per 100 young people (2021 Census). A demographic imbalance that will lead to a reduction in the working population and which could jeopardize the sustainability of social security, in addition to increasing the pressure on our national health system.
- Indebtedness, with a public debt in the 2nd quarter of 2021 of 133% of GDP and a debt of the non-financial sector of 766 billion euros in October 2021. This debt sucks enormous resources from the economy and could put the country in a Very fragile situation if interest rates rise again.
- Poor productivity per hour worked. Portugal’s 23 euros compare with the 41 euros of the European average, which means that the Portuguese GDP per capita currently represents only 77% of the European Union average, when in 1999 it was 84%. If we are not able to increase productivity, we cannot expect to see wages rise miraculously.
- The low levels of education, with only 52% of Portuguese aged between 25 and 64 years old having completed secondary education, when the European Union average is 78%. Despite the growing number of university students, only 17.4% of the population completed higher education (2021 Census). Furthermore, more than half of employers (54.6%) did not attend secondary or higher education (vs. 16.6% in the EU). Even in the face of these delays, only 10% of Portuguese between 25 and 64 years of age attend training throughout their lives.
- The aging of the teaching staff in schools, with only 1.1% of teachers under 35 years old and 53% over 50 years old. This means that 40% of teachers are expected to retire by 2030, while the number of students in master’s degrees with teaching qualifications has fallen by 70% since the beginning of the century. If we do not renew and requalify the teaching staff, it will be difficult for us to adapt education to the future of the labor market.
- Economic, social and intergenerational inequality, characterized by youth unemployment (15 to 24 years old) of 23% and an at-risk-of-poverty rate of 18.4% in 2020 (vs. 16.2% in 2019). We are talking about 2 million people at risk of poverty or in poverty. Even having a job is no longer enough to escape poverty. According to INE, 11.2% of employed people are poor, the highest figure in the last 13 years. Something absolutely understandable since a fifth of the Portuguese only receive the minimum wage. These levels of poverty mean that a percussion of the Portuguese will not complete their studies due to lack of financial conditions.
- The slowness of justice and the lack of means to fight corruption. The congestion rate in the courts stood at 152% in 2020, and the Public Ministry’s lack of means to investigate the multiplicity of acts of corruption is notorious, leading some cases to become statute-barred.
- Insufficient coverage of public health services, with more than one million users without a family doctor, one million consultations and 127,000 surgeries to be performed, and considerable deprivation in physiotherapy and oral health.
- The scarcity of affordable housing has resulted in the poor condition of many homes, with 17.5% of residents saying they cannot keep their home warm during the winter (Eurostat).
- The absence of a sufficiently dynamic framework for business activity and investment. Portugal is in 39th place in the ease of doing business rating from the World Bank (vs. 23rd in 2016) and has the second highest corporate income tax rate in Europe. In a country with a colossal debt and a low savings rate, it is imperative to encourage foreign investment to build a more innovative and productive country.
- The need to move quickly towards a more sustainable society, including all the investments and costs to make the energy transition and ensure green mobility.
- The technological revolution and the digital transition, with an impact on companies, people and public administration, changing different paradigms of the economy and the labor market.
- Support for the economic and social groups most affected by the pandemic.
Starting from a diagnosis, as factual and numerical as possible, politicians are focused on defining solutions to these challenges, instead of getting lost in ideological follies, requests for stable majorities, marriages of convenience or propagandistic creations by providential leaders. The solutions to our problems do not come from these four conventions and many have already been applied in other countries. It is up to us to follow the best examples and adapt to our reality. It is up to the media to force the parties to clarify what are their solutions to these challenges so that the Portuguese can make an informed choice on the next advantages and so that society can scrutinize whether what was said was fulfilled.