Covid-19: Paris facing the onslaught of the epidemic wave
Île-de-France is currently the region most affected by the Omicron variant. According to the data given by the site Covid Tracker, the suspicion by the absence of the L452R mutation (specific to Delta) in the screenings fluctuates between 35% in Val-d’Oise and climbs to 55% in Paris. The strain would therefore have won the battle for the capital in just a few weeks.
While waiting to conquer the rest of the territory – and while the number of cases is already breaking records in France – how is Paris experiencing this Omicron rebound in the fifth wave?
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- An incidence rate twice as high as the French average
At 1,537 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, the incidence rate is currently breaking the ceiling in Paris. This is almost 2.5 times higher than the French average. And corresponds to 30 times the alert threshold set by the government (50).
Or, the two curves, Parisian and French, often tend to follow. Until now, the Parisian waves hit with a little advance, or sometimes at the same time the rest of the territory.
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- Young people on the front line
Young people are the first targets of this “wave in the wave”. The figures are staggering: 3,405 cases per 100,000 young people aged 20 to 30, 68 times the government’s alert threshold. Some 2,518 cases for the same proportions in the older age group. The pressure drops sharply from the age of 50, but still remains high, with incidences between 893 and 203.
Clearly, one in thirty years aged 20 to 30 had a positive test this past week, summarizes Guillaume Rozier, the founder of the Covidtracker platform. “This gap, already seen in previous waves, is explained by more social contacts at this age. The spread of Omicron among others [plus vieux, NDLR] will arrive quickly given its contagiousness. We must stop this “, at the same time warned on Twitter Rémi Salomon, president of the medical commission of establishment of the Public Assistance of the Hospitals of Paris (AP-HP).
- Hospital: still moderate tension
In the middle of the fifth wave and in the face of the Omicron rebound, the vaccination against Covid-19 as well as the boosters offer protection against the most serious cases. The first lessons from abroad, from the United Kingdom and South Africa where the Omicron variant struck first, also seem reassuring: despite its strong contosity, this strain is inherently less dangerous than Delta.
An analysis by the British health security agency released Thursday indicates that patients infected with the Omicron variant of the coronavirus have up to a 70% risk of being hospitalized from the Delta mutation. According to another South African study, relayed by Bloomberg, it would be up to 80%.
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As of December 25, 162 people have been transferred to intensive care in Paris. About 42% of the beds were occupied by Covid patients. Taking into account a two-week lag between the peaks of contamination and that at the hospital, this increase probably not yet the Omicron brand. But if the first observations from abroad prove to be correct, and if the virus continues to attack mainly young people, less prone to severe cases, this new wave in the hospital could be much less tragic than those observed in the spring of 2020 and 2021.
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