Case records, occupied hospital beds: told what to expect from an omikron in Lithuania
The news portal tv3.lt reminds that on Wednesday the first cases of the omicron variety were officially recorded in Lithuania. Professor Saulius Čaplinskas, Director of the Center for Infectious Diseases and AIDS, and Gytis Dudas, a virus researcher at the Vilnius University Center for Life Sciences, discussed this uniqueness and the challenges it poses in the show of relevant conversations of the news portal tv3.lt.
The virus has made progress – effectively overcoming the protection of the immune system
“The most important information everyone should know about the omicron strain is exactly what we judge from the mutations in the virus. This is a much more effective way to infect people who have been ill or vaccinated in the past, ”said a spokesman for VU GMC.
According to G. Dudo, the omicron strain shows the progress of the virus.
“If our immune system has learned to fight a single variant of the virus, be it a vaccine or a vaccine, omicron is quite different from all the other strains it has known so far, so it is expected to be re-infected,” said the virus researcher.
Compared to chickenpox and measles
According to S. Čaplinskas, the researchers find that the omicron strain reproduces 70 times faster and more efficiently in the bronchial mucosa.
“The faster and more people release the virus into the environment, and the less the virus needs to be inhaled for the infection to occur,” the ULAC director said.
He compared the omicron strain of infection with well-known diseases, often in childhood.
“None of us had chickenpox, measles or mumps, especially before the vaccinations. If the rate of spread of this virus is the same or even faster than the rate of spread of chickenpox, it means that if we have not encountered the coronavirus yet, then we will definitely face the omicron strain, ”said S. Čaplinskas.
Omikron may dominate as early as February
According to ULAC, the fact that the cold season has come, the omicron variety is spreading, the delta variety has not disappeared and the flu season has started, and people want to communicate with each other during the holiday season, it is natural to predict the rise of cases.
“Maybe even a peak in February,” S. Chaplinskas assured.
According to the professor, omikron is still not the dominant strain in Lithuania, but knowing that it is spreading rapidly, he claims that omikron will become predominant and possibly displace other strains.
“In Europe, this can happen already in February,” S. Čaplinskas explained.
The delta does not necessarily disappear
Mr Dudas agreed that omikron could become the dominant strain, but disagreed that it could completely displace the delta strain.
“I wouldn’t agree that there is any unequivocal evidence that omikron has an innate transmission advantage. What we see very clearly, and what is indisputable, is that we see the impact of the environment on the benefits of transmission, namely the ability to effectively infect people who are immunized, as the delta has shown, but not to the same extent, ”Dud said.
“In the coming weeks, seeing an increase in other states, we can expect the omicron to become dominant, but whether it could displace the delta is still an open question,” he added.
The number of cases could improve on last year’s records
Because omicron is spreading much faster, Dud does not rule out the possibility that the number of infections will soon exceed the records we saw last winter, the blackest pandemic period.
“I wouldn’t even be surprised if there were even more cases,” said a researcher at VU GMC.
However, according to the virus researcher, it should be remembered that during the delta strain wave, when 20 thousand. cases per week, there were not as many deaths from coronavirus.
“It simply came to our notice then. These are both vaccinated and sick people. And what we see in the Republic of South Africa (PAR), where we have all heard of lighter cases. I don’t think they are due to some innate omicron traits, but precisely to the fact that a very large portion of the public in South Africa is affected by both beta and delta. [atmainomis], both a quarter of the population was vaccinated. It seems to me that this results in smaller volumes of hospitals, “said G. Dudas.
Although getting sick is easier, the hospital can still be clogged
“Even if we expect more cases, there is no single state in the world that relies only on the number of cases, especially when it comes to vaccinating its society. Everyone, in one way or another, responds to hospital occupancy, mortality.
Only to the extent that omicron has to be an unfortunate solution, even if it is a much lighter percentage of completely immune, in people who are on the rise, the mere fact that omicron can reach almost the entire public can get where we start to reduce the number of people who after “The immunization omicron is so severe, and we multiply it by the high number of illnesses, and we still get enough hospital employment to get into trouble,” Dud said.
Omikron still raises many uncertainties in Lithuania
According to S. Čaplinskas, it is still difficult to say how dangerous the omicron strain will be in Lithuania. He pointed out that the new variety has begun to spread in South Africa at a time when it is summer and with us during the cold season.
“In addition, the proportion of seniors in our population is much higher. How the virus will behave to the extent that it affects people who have more than one co-morbidity or additional aggravating factors <...> “It’s probably a lot of uncertainty here,” said the ULAC director.
“One thing is clear, the virus is evolving along the way it was predicted. It is to be hoped that the pathogenicity will not increase, “he added.
This is only a part of G. Dudas and S. Čaplinskas’ discussion in the show “Section of the Day”. You can watch the video throughout the show, where you will find it at the beginning of the text.
The isolation rules change when the case of the omicron strain is confirmed
There are already confirmed cases of the omicron variety in Lithuania. The NVSC can then organize surveys with municipal administrations not only for high-risk but also for low-risk contacts, as well as for those who have been in contact with contact persons. An operative mass survey of an extended focus, an organized structure (workplace, educational institution, household, mass event, etc.), geographical region can also be organized. The police department has been instructed to carry out stricter inspections of persons who have had daily contact with the omicron strain during isolation for compliance with isolation requirements.
According to the updated isolation rules, which will take effect on 4 December, if a patient is diagnosed or suspected with a coronavirus omicron strain, all people who come in contact with it will be isolated for 10 days, depending on whether they have been vaccinated or have COVID-19. There will be no possibility to shorten the insulation in such cases.
Travelers from the Republic of Botswana, the Kingdom of Eschatov, the Kingdom of Lesotho, the Republic of Mozambique, the Republic of Namibia, the Republic of the South and the Republic of Zimbabwe have also been reduced. It is recalled that visitors from these countries with approved communicable disease control measures must be isolated from vaccination or COVID-19. The list of affected countries is updated every Friday and published on the Ministry of Health website website.
Intensified communicable disease control measures may be maintained for arrivals from the countries of origin in the following cases:
– to treat a person who is unable to take care of themselves or to take them to a medical institution for emergency care (informing the NVSC is not required);
– Carry out a COVID-19 test to remove or transport a person unable to take care of themselves (informing the NVSC is not required);
– citizens of the Republic of Lithuania, persons residing or working, the purposes for which it is necessary to leave the territory of the Republic of Lithuania , where they live, work or where healthcare will be provided without passing the designated isolation terminal (the planned departure must be notified to the NVSC).
– as before, if there are good reasons to change the place of isolation, he must apply to the NVSC and obtain permission to isolate to another place of isolation (the permit is issued no more than 2 times, only for travel to the period of isolation).
You can find the order of the Minister of Health on changes to the isolation procedure HERE (accessories).
The order also clarifies the isolation algorithm for individuals with potential immunity to COVID-19, stating that people who have not been vaccinated according to the full scheme must be isolated for 10 days (there is no possibility of serological testing and no isolation based on it). You will find an updated isolation algorithm HERE.