Either Putin is bluffing, or Ukraine is facing a “terrible test” – The Economist
Following a series of recent warnings from Russia about the build-up of Russian troops near Ukraine’s borders, The Economist decided to analyze the balance of power in the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation and the possibility of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.
“Waiting for the frosts”
The publication notes that with the approach of winter, when the rich soil of the south-east of Ukraine is frozen, Russian tanks will find it easier to break into its territory.
In addition, it connects in time from the middle of the service of the Russian people, who make up most of Russia’s ground forces. At the same time, as a pretext for the invasion, Moscow can use the aggravation on the line of demarcation, which did not happen after the New Year in the past.
“100,000 Russian troops stationed near the border are not just a theater, Russia is setting up field hospitals and attracting reserves,” the newspaper said.
What can oppose Ukraine?
The Economist duly appreciates the transformations that the Ukrainian military has experienced since 2014, including its high level of professionalism, which significantly increases the country’s strength and significant US arms assistance.
However, the publication also points out that further defense reform takes time, which is not available. And that procurement also remains “opaque,” local defense companies are “unproductive,” and the culture of governing the army is “very rigid, as in Soviet times.”
“Volodymyr Zelensky wants more through Ukraine. Weapons are good, but most of all he wants to join NATO. This has forced America and 29 other countries to defend Ukraine in the event of an attack on Russia. But such a question seems unlikely, NATO clearly does not want to swear to defend a country that Russia has already attacked, “writes The Economist.
However, the publication adds, Ukraine is still preparing its forces for “interoperability” with NATO forces and is increasingly participating in joint exercises.
Russian “logic”
According to the publication, Russia’s logic is still based on undesirable directions to get involved in the war because of the significant costs it would cause.
“Vladimir Putin has created a military front line and a small amount of Russian equipment, but not aircraft or entire battalions. The result has been a disorganized land war that Ukraine is waging better and better,” the article said.
However, Russian logic may change the course of events, which seems unacceptable to her, the publication suggests.
“She fears that Western-oriented Ukraine is abandoning its historic role of buffer between Russia and the West and instead deploying American firearms in close proximity to Moscow,” The Economist reports.
What do analysts say?
Despite Moscow’s “tricks”, Ukraine’s rapprochement with Europe and America continues, and Russia is losing patience, says Samuel Charap of the American think tank R.
This does not mean that Russia wants to finally absorb a large part of Ukrainian territory.
Pro-Kremlin international affairs expert Fyodor Lukyanov suggests that there could be a “rapid, brutal invasion, similar to Russia’s war with Georgia in 2008, after which tough negotiations will take place.” And the reason will be “easy to find or create.”
What when…
A full-scale attack by the Russian army to “spray” Ukrainian troops, the newspaper said.
Kyiv has nothing to oppose the Russian jet bombers, which “recently proved their power in Syria”, the Ukrainian navy remained in Crimea for the most part and never recovered, Russian troops are better armed, more numerous and have a better logistics system.
“It doesn’t look like any Western state is ready to go to war with Russia for Ukraine. Maybe Mr. Putin is bluffing,” The Economist suggests, but if that’s not the case, the Ukrainian army is “under a terrible test.”
The review was prepared by Maria Kondrachuk, BBC Monitoring Service.