It is too early to say that Ukraine is on the verge of losing Kobolev’s energy independence
It is too early to say that Ukraine is on the verge of losing its independence from Russia in terms of energy resources. About this on Kyiv Security Forum said Andriy Kobolev, former chairman of the board of Naftogaz Ukrainy, who managed the company from March 2014 to the end of April 2021.
According to him, since 2016, Ukraine has made several breakthroughs in the energy sector. One of them is the integration of the Ukrainian gas market into the European one.
“This step actually took Ukraine off the gas needle. Many experts and pro-Russian fans argue that we buy more Russian gas in Europe – this is not true. We bought gas cheaper than the Russians offered us, “said the former head of Naftogaz.
In addition to independence, according to Kobolev, Ukraine has gained even higher economic efficiency.
This achievement is now at great risk, Kobolev said.
“Because after some successful actions by the Russians, which were, first of all, related to the lifting of sanctions against Nord Stream-2, it is possible for them to launch a” Turkish stream “in the annex. And we started to lose sources from Europe little by little, ”he explained.
The first, according to Kobolev, is Hungary. Only the gas that Ukraine exports comes from there, and it is actually returned to the Ukrainian side, he explained.
“If Ukraine stops pumping gas from Hungary, the physical flow will be zero. We have lost our value to a part of our European import balance, ”said a former eyewitness of Naftogaz.
According to him, the big questions are what will happen to Poland. Kobolev calls Slovakia the biggest risk.
“The biggest war and conflict took place there in 23 years. We pressed the Slovaks through our Western partners. The Slovaks agreed to open the first small, then large reverse. Now it is reduced to a small reverse, “Kobolev explained.
Also today, according to him, the connection of the Polish gas pipeline to the Ukrainian gas pipeline is being established. In fact, it will further reduce the ability of Slovakia to import gas, Kobolev said.
“A simple mathematical calculation of our ability to import the remaining gas suggests that especially with an empty subway, with which Ukraine will pump a sufficient amount of gas next year from the winter season, it is mathematically very difficult or perhaps theoretically impossible,” he suggested. ex-chairman of the board of Naftogaz.
According to him, if this happens, “any independence and integration into Europe will again depend on Russia.”
Kobolev also said that from next year, unless sanctions or other measures of international diplomacy are applied, the Russians will try to launch Nord Stream-2.
“This will further worsen our ability to import gas from the EU,” he added.
What is known
- Ukraine’s financial losses due to the launch of the Nord Stream-2 Russian gas project in the amount of up to 1.2 billion US dollars a year with the fall in the volume of transit of natural gas through Ukrainian territory. The corresponding estimate contains y materials the first review of stand by programs for Ukraine by the International Monetary Fund.
- Russia does not want to negotiate with Ukraine on gas transit after 2024. “We are discussing this with the Americans and the dumb, that each side would like to extend the transit agreement, but the Russians do not even want to start a conversation,” – said the chairman of Naftogaz Yuri Vitrenko Reuters.
- Germany has temporarily suspended the certification procedure of Nord Stream 2 AG, the operator of the Russian Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline, due to the inconsistency of its legal design with German law. The corresponding decision is on November 16 approved Federal Network Agency.
- On August 22, during a visit to Kyiv, German Chancellor Angela Merkel briefed Russian President Vladimir Putin on new European sanctions if the Kremlin uses the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline as a weapon against Ukraine.
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