San Marino, prospects do not grow on trees
The State Congress recently approved the draft budget for next year. The expenditure chapter is dedicated to the deficit and liquidity needs, essentially current expenditure, that part of expenditure that should normally be financed with current revenues, ie taxes. When the current expenditure is financed with debt, it is not sufficient to cover the expenses and it is therefore necessary to resort to credit Translated in a trivial way, but understandable to all, too much has been spent. Apparently the management of public finance should be a superficial exercise that would lead to hasty and potentially inaccurate considerations. Often the economic policy choices will be made simply by copying other countries that decide to deal with debt to face times of crisis such as the current one. Let us not forget, in fact, that the pandemic crisis that we are still enduring has caused very considerable damage in the pockets of states and citizens, and not only for the huge costs for the health care machinery. Many states, starting with the USA, as well as the choice of exceptional debt choices that have favored the response to the crisis that the necessary measures to combat the pandemic have caused. As everyone knows, debt is not a problem in itself, if there are resources capable of repaying it in a reasonable time. But what is the reasonable time? How long can a state be in debt? Is there a limit? These are questions that are difficult to answer, both because not all states are the same, and because the conditions of the ability to produce wealth are also susceptible to changes, even significant ones over time, precisely due to, among other things, crises. sudden. In fact, where it was possible to imagine a distribution of the debt over time without anyone demanding its payment except to a very small extent and with a very convenient frequency, the space for indebtedness would be almost infinite, at least for the states. In fact, if a natural person has a finite life perspective that cannot always be extended by descendants, a state will never end (at least with the perspective of us Westerners). So can a state get into debt by mortgaging the lives of people who are not yet born? Of course! It happens all the time. The reputation of consumption seems to be inextinguishable. When and how such a condition of financial drunkenness can lead us to a point of saturation is not easy to establish. On the other hand, it is easy to imagine that the technical possibilities will allow us to obtain more and more and that, moreover, the game we are playing with our children and grandchildren can also continue with them, in which case they give to their descendants. and so ad infinitum. The problem, therefore, simply does not exist, it seems. We can continue to get into debt at least as long as creditors agree to widen their lines. Financial imbalances are certainly multiple and complex, in particular since everyone can lend money to everyone (or almost everyone), but every now and then something happens and then even larger countries than San Marino have found themselves having to face very aggressive creditors who have demanded quick payments and the reputation of the debtor, the state, deteriorated very rapidly and it became much more difficult to access new resources. The scenarios can be many, and some may appear not entirely exciting. If we know that it is not easy to encourage the development of a small country like San Marino, we must also know well that prospects do not grow on trees.
Giacomo Ercolani