Brussels reviews high growth lever for Portugal
AN European Commission revised upwards projections for Portugal’s gross domestic product (GDP) for this year, now expecting a growth of 4.5%. Next year, Portugal should grow 5.3% and 2.4% in 2023. In reaction to these numbers, the Government considers that the economy is “in a good moment”.
In summer economic opinions, published in early July, the European Commission maintained its spring projections, estimating GDP growth of 3.9% this year and 5.1% next year, below government projections.
The rates released today by the European Commission also point to an information rate of 0.8% this year (the Government points to 0.9%), then rising to 1.7% in 2022, but falling back down to 1, 2% in 2023.
In two years, Brussels will also estimate that the growth of the national GDP will drop to 2.4%, also expecting a stabilization of the growth of exports and imports at 4.1% and 4.0%, respectively.
Meanwhile, exports are expected to pick up 11.1% this year and 9.5% next year, while specifications are also expected to rise by 10.9% and 6.2% in 2021 and 2022, respectively.
“Portugal’s economy is recovering strongly, helped by a resurgence in demand and employment. The prospect of favorable growth despite challenges related to global supply chains and uncertainty in foreign tourism”, says the European Commission in the commentary on the national economy.
Brussels points out that in the first half of the year as “sales of durable goods grew against the backdrop of accumulated savings and pent-up demand”.
In the fiscal proposal, delivered to the Assembly of the Republic and meanwhile ‘leaked’, the Government predicts that the Portuguese economy will grow 4.8% this year. For 2022, the Government forecasts an economy growth of 5.5%.
Last week, minister João Leão said that as the Government’s targets for this year regarding the deficit and debt are “within reach” of the country, something that “gives credibility” at the international level, stating that he expects to meet the goal of “a deficit of 4.3%, or less, by the end of the year”, as well as the “target of reducing public debt by 135% [do PIB] to 126.9% this year”.
European Commission more pessimistic than Government on debt and deficit
The European Commission expects the Portuguese deficit to reach 4.5% of GDP and public debt to reach 128.1% of GDP this year, changing worse than the governments.
According to the Economic Forecasts for autumn, released today, the deficit of the national public accounts is still expected to decrease to 3.4% public in 2022, while the debt-to-GDP ratio declining to 123.9%.
In the report adjacent to the State Budget proposal for 2022 – although rejected – the Government had predicted that this year’s deficit would be 4.3% and that the debt would decrease to 126.9%, and in 2022 the values would decrease, respectively, to 3.2% and 122.8%.
Political crisis: Uncertainties “represent an additional risk factor”
The European Commission (EC) considers, in the autumn economic functions, that the uncertainties related to the parliamentary ‘lead’ of the proposed State Budget for 2022, and subsequent uncertainties, represent “an additional risk factor” for Portugal.
“The uncertainties related to the adoption of a Budget 2022 represent an additional risk factor”, can be read in the section dedicated to Portugal of the Economic Forecasts, which were released today by the European executive.
Government believes that figures from Brussels prove “credible” scenario
The Minister of Finance, João Leão, considers that an upward revision of the macroeconomic changes of the European Commission, which are below the Government, proves, even so, that the scenario outlined by the national executive “is credible”.
“The rates of the European Commission show that the macroeconomic scenario presented by the Government in the proposed State Budget for 2022 is credible and that the Portuguese can have confidence in the future“, can be read in a statement sent by the Ministry of Finance to the newsrooms.
The Brussels rates “also confirm that the context of political uncertainty that we are going through did not originate in financial problems or in a crisis of public finances, as happened in the past”, arbitrator the Minister of State and Finance.
[Notícia atualizada às 10h38]
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