When will Portugal be overtaken by Romania? – Observer
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1 The path from 1995 to 2020: Portugal and the EU
At the end of a political cycle, it is interesting to look at Portugal’s trajectory in the European Union, going beyond the advertising clichés that hide the reality and, for this purpose, the GDP per capita in purchasing power parities (R) was chosen using the data available by PORDATA for 3 recent periods: 1995- 2000, 2000-2015 and the most recent, 2015-2020.
Now the evolution of R is clear regarding the recent difficulties:
confirming that we converged until the beginning of this century but that in this century we stopped converging and just like that the last 5 years the country stagnated.
two the path of the most backward
It is also important to study that they are here behind Portugal in 1995 to better understand the meaning of evolution. However, there were 11 States out of the 27 with a R lower than Portugal in 1995, Romania being the one at the lower end with R = 4547. new situation in 2020:
so its percentage average rose from 61% to 100% in relation to Portugal.
In fact, between 1995 and 2000, Portugal was not surpassed by any of these 11 States but it was already surpassed by 3 States in 2000, in 2015 by 4 States and now by 5 States. The percentage evolution of R in relation to Portugal, which is presented, clearly shows the tendency of Portugal to be overtaken by the 11 states, since only Bulgaria and Croatia are more than 8 percentage points away from Portugal.
3 In which year does Romania pass Portugal?
The future always depends on how things are invented and constructed, but if the same policies are adopted, it is natural that the trends will be maintained because, as Einstein said, according to the same causes, they provoke the same effects.
So, look at the extrapolar evolution of R relative to 2015-2020.
therefore, extrapolating this trend, it is easy to conclude that it will be in 2023 that Romania will surpass Portugal, remembering that Romania was the state of the 27th most behind in 1995.