Two economic shocks. What are the consequences of COVID-19 for Belarus | Belarus: a view from Europe – special project DW | DW
The government of Belarus did not take tough measures in connection with the coronavirus pandemic: there was no lockdown, schools and universities were not closed. It is true that administrative mechanisms were used to stabilize state-owned enterprises, but there was no support from the private sector. What did this lead to? Authors of the study “Laissez-faire” COVID-19: Economic Consequences in Belarus presented their conclusions during an online lecture on October 7.
Has the lack of a lockdown helped the economy?
According to the economist, BEROC expert Lev Lvovsky, in most countries the recession was an artificial government, taking care of the health of the population, imposed restrictive measures. Belarus, on the other hand, is a unique case that allows you to find out what is happening with the economy and people. Since March 2020, the authors of the study have been collecting data and polling the urban population to measure the effect and impact of the pandemic and everything connected with it on various sectors of the economy, income and psychological state of people.
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Despite the absence of lockdowns and restrictions, Belarus still experienced two economic shocks caused by COVID-19. , which led to a decrease in demand for contact services “, – said Lvovsky. In addition, according to the expert, Belarus faced a shock of external demand due to a lockdown from trade partners of Belarus, including the” holiday regime “in Russia.
In turn, the director of the economic BEROC Katerina Bornukova notes that the state nevertheless intervened in the situation – simply not through quarantine bans, by other mechanisms, for example, through the support of a state-owned enterprise. “We see that the industry was not so much fired as sent on a simple, unpaid leave, which made it possible to maintain employment in the long term,” says Bornukova.
At the same time, according to her, those who worked in the private sector turned out to be vulnerable, since there are more enterprises in this area engaged in tourism, in the restaurant industry, and so on. “It seems to me that this is an important signal: the system of social support is not for everyone,” the expert notes.
The decline in Belarus’ GDP is less than in neighboring countries
The main reasons for the loss are a decrease in wages, a reduction in the number of working days, unpaid vacations, and the cancellation of bonuses. According to the study, in industrial enterprises that received state support, people complained least of all about the decrease in their income. As well as those employed in agriculture, finance or construction.
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“We see that at the very beginning of the pandemic, people who work in the hospitality and retail industry suffered more. Further transport industry: due to the fact that Russia and European countries were closed, there was less traffic,” says Lev Lvovsky.
Many people in Belarus complained about the decrease in their income, in terms of the macroeconomic level, the decline in Belarus’ GDP during the pandemic was less than in neighboring countries. “The mechanics itself is interesting. Due to the fact that, apparently, people’s incomes decreased at different times, the negative effects overlapped,” comments Lev Lvovsky.
Women suffered more than men
In addition, the authors of the study noted, the shock of mobility has negative consequences mainly for women, and the export shock, on the contrary, for men. This can be explained by various differences in the employment of people.
Experts have shown gender differences in the effects of coronavirus only in people with children. This is a decision not to take them to school or kindergarten during a pandemic. In this group, women suffered more from income than men. Depression, with loss of income, they were also at greater risk.
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