Dirndl coalition still possible after Salzburg election 2023? – State election Salzburg
Less than two months after the Lower Austria elections, the state elections will take place in Salzburg on April 23rd. There is currently a coalition of ÖVP, Greens and NEOS.
On April 23, Salzburg closes the round of the three state elections in 2023. If you believe the first polls, the continuation of the black-green-pink “dirndl coalition” after the election could no longer be calculated. It is unclear with whom ÖVP Governor Wilfried Haslauer would then govern. Because there is little doubt that the People’s Party will win on election day.
ÖVP in the last Salzburg election with 37.8 percent
The ÖVP, at the Salzburg state election In 2018 with Kurz’s tailwind from the federal government to 37.8 percent, five of the seven seats of government, Greens and NEOS each have one. The People’s Party is the clearly dominant force in the country, but is likely to lose votes in the April 23 election. This is probably not only due to the federal ÖVP, which was in crisis, and the general mood. Even before inflation skyrocketed, living in Salzburg had become increasingly difficult to afford. In addition, one remained inactive for a long time to get the problems with the spatial planning and the sale of land under control.
Lower losses for the ÖVP in the Salzburg election?
However, the losses of the People’s Party in Salzburg should not be as severe as in Tyrol or Lower Austria. However, the previous surveys by the institutes IFDD and GMK, each with 800, show a high fluctuation range (around 3.5 percentage points). Accordingly, the ÖVP would come to 32 or 35 percent, Greens and NEOS would de facto keep their current values at nine and eight percent. And this despite the fact that the two junior partners were struggling with internal party conflicts. The top candidate Heinrich Schellhorn became the Greens in November 2022 as a result of a care scandal by Martina Berthold, the NEOS had lost club status in the state parliament the previous year after the departure of their club boss.
Salzburg’s ÖVP governor warns of red and blue
If the polls are correct, the dirndl coalition would only just get out or not at all. There is a lot at stake for the Greens and NEOS: if they leave the state government in Salzburg, they would only be part of a government in one federal state (Greens: Vorarlberg, NEOS: Vienna). Haslauer would then have to look for a new partner. The ÖVP governor recently warned against red-blue to mobilize ÖVP voters. However, this strategy does not work in the elections in Lower Austria.
SPÖ and FPÖ are likely to duel for second place in the Salzburg election
The opposition parties in the state parliament, SPÖ and FPÖ, would like to be part of a new state government. Both parties are likely to duel for second place in the Salzburg elections on April 23. In 2018, the SPÖ was just ahead of the FPÖ with 20.0 percent (18.8 percent). At that time, the Freedom Party, but the appearance of the FPÖ country chief Karl Schnell with his own list cost votes. If you add these to the FPÖ votes, the Freedom Party would have become the second strongest force even then. Both the SPÖ – which is entering the field for the first time with top candidate David Egger – and the FPÖ – with state head Marlene Svazek – are slightly up in the polls, but both IFDD and GMK saw the Social Democrats ahead.
Which parties in the Salzburg election 2023?
It is still unclear which parties will actually be on the ballot in Salzburg. In addition to the five state parliament parties, three lists have announced that they are collecting declarations of support for running. The GMK surprisingly saw the KPÖ plus nationwide at four percent. In addition, two groups from the camp of vaccination critics and opponents of corona measures are also competing: MFG and the list “We are Salzburg”, which split off from MFG last year, of the preferred MFG national manager Gerhard Pöttler. The IFDD survey saw the MFG at three percent.
A total of around 390,000 people will be entitled to vote in Salzburg on April 23. For the first time, the absentee ballots are already counted on election day. The final result WILL THUS be available on the evening of the election. There is a five percent hurdle in Salzburg for entry into the state parliament.