Has a Koran-burning protest put an end to Sweden’s NATO dream?
A crowd gathered outside the Turkish embassy in Stockholm on Saturday afternoon to watch far-right politician Rasmus Paludan burn the Koran. Paludan, who heads the anti-Islam Danish party Hard Line, was seen by dozens of photographers, police officers and bemused passers-by. Paludan is no stranger to controversy: he has been in the past convicted under racism and defamation laws. This latest stunt was called to show his party’s opposition to immigration and, he says, to stand up for free speech. Now, however, the stunt has become a diplomatic crisis for Sweden – and there are fears that its bid to join NATO could go up in smoke.
Sweden is in the midst of trying to end its historic policy of neutrality and join the military alliance, along with neighboring Finland. While the US, UK and want the two Nordic democracies to be part of NATO, Turkey maintains its support and has repeatedly threatened to veto both countries’ applications. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government says Sweden has not done enough to crack down on pro-exile Kurdish “terrorist groups” operating in the country. As part of an agreement signed by Sweden and Finland last summer in exchange for Turkey’s support in their NATO bids, the two countries said they would extradite more than 70 Kurds accused of extremism. Erdogan says they have been slow to act.
In the days before Paludan’s protest, the Turkish government summoned the Swedish ambassador to demand that the planned demonstration be banned. It would be a “hate crime” and a “provocation”, he was told. Turkey then announced that it had canceled an upcoming meeting with Sweden’s defense minister to discuss its NATO application.
“At this point, the visit has lost all meaning and purpose,” said his Turkish counterpart Hulusi Akar. Stockholm’s local police allowed the protest to go ahead, saying Sweden has “strong protection” for freedom of expression in its constitution. Sweden’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Tobias Billström. said that, having given Paludan permission to protest, it would be “inappropriate” for the government to stop him.
Unsurprisingly, Erdogan saw things differently. He says that Sweden’s hopes of joining NATO may be more or less over. “Those who allow such blasphemy in front of our embassy can no longer expect our support for their NATO membership,” he warned on Monday. Pictures of Paludan were was burned of angry crowds outside Sweden’s stately consulate in Istanbul, where a large digital sign displays the Ukrainian flag as a symbol of resistance to Russia’s war. The consulate has now been temporarily closed and Swedish citizens in Turkey are asked to avoid public gatherings.
At home, the Swedish government is also now rowing back its defense of freedom of expression. “Freedom of expression is a fundamental part of democracy”, Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson tweeted. “But what is legal is not necessarily appropriate. Burning books that are sacred to many is a profoundly disrespectful act.’ Swedes are desperate for NATO protection to ensure that what happened to Ukraine cannot happen to them.
When Turkey joined NATO in 1952, at the height of the Cold War, it gave the Western alliance effective control over the Bosphorus, a narrow and strategic waterway that passes through Istanbul and connects the Mediterranean with the Black Sea and the southern coast of Turkey. former Soviet Union. Last year, after Russia invaded Ukraine, Ankara closed the strait to warships, preventing Moscow from bringing in more naval forces to support its war.
Turkey was a key NATO member when it joined, and it has only grown more powerful since then. Erdogan has become a key mediator of talks between Russia and Ukraine, with the two sides meeting several times in Turkey to discuss a potential peace deal and details of the prisoner exchange. Last summer, as food prices soared and there were fears of famine in the developing world, Ankara broke a deal that unblocked Ukraine’s southern coastal ports and saw Turkish destroyers escort grain ships through a mine-strewn Black Sea.
But at the same time, Erdogan has allowed Russian money to continue to flow through Turkey and has made it easier for Moscow’s banks to operate there, in defiance of global sanctions. Faced with a major economic crisis at home, he has made deals with the Kremlin to bring in cheap oil and gas. Erdogan has even agreed to an offer from Vladimir Putin to make his country a hub for Russian fossil fuels, circumvent embargoes and sell supplies to European countries at a premium.
The way Erdogan works has caused European governments to question whether Turkey is really siding with the West, or with Russia. In reality, neither does. Turkey’s value to both has almost never been higher, and Erdogan knows he can exploit this to get what he wants. With a critical election scheduled for May, a Scandinavian far-right party has given Erdogan the opportunity to show his conservative base of support that he stands up for Islamic values.
Rasmus Paludan’s Koran burning may have been an exercise in freedom of expression, but it may now be his country that has to pay the price. How far will Sweden go to secure its place in NATO?