bne IntelliNews – Sweden’s NATO bid proving ‘man from heaven’ for Erdogan’s re-election campaign says analyst
Sweden’s accession to NATO is proving “man from heaven” for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s re-election campaign amid a tough contest that will culminate in May.
That’s according to analyst Timothy Ash, who wrote in a message to investors on January 24: burning of the Koran in Sweden [at the weekend by a far-right political leader] will play into his hands – was it organized by Moscow?”
Erdogan has for months warned Sweden and Finland that Turkey will use its right as a NATO member to veto their bid to join the defense bloc if Ankara feels it has not done enough to crack down on individuals living in the Nordic countries they claim are either Kurdish or Gulenist terrorists and militants. Ankara demanded the extraditions, but Sweden pointed out that Stockholm cannot simply choose to extradite people wanted by Turkey, as they can only act on independent decisions from their courts.
The hanging a picture of Erdogan by a Kurdish group outside Stockholm City Hall and the burning of the Koran was seized by the Turkish strongman as he declared after a cabinet meeting on January 23 that Sweden can no longer expect Turkey to approve its NATO application.
Ash, a senior strategist at London-based Bluebay Asset Management, added that if Erdogan won re-election and maintained his opposition to Sweden’s NATO membership, “this is likely to be the basis of the most serious row between Turkey and its Western partners and allies in generations”.
Some analysts have warned that there will be various NATO member countries who will wonder if the right course of action might be to throw Turkey out of NATO and welcome it to the Nordics.
All but two of NATO’s 30 members have ratified the Nordic applications, and Hungary has said it plans to do so at the opening of its parliament next month. That would leave Turkey as the only stop.
Erdogan will try to strengthen the support of nationalists and the religious conservatives ahead of the Turkish election.
Western capitals will be hoping that as soon as the election is over, Erdogan, if re-elected, or a new president in Turkey, will change Turkish foreign policy and allow Sweden and Finland to join NATO with little further resistance. Vladimir Putin, with whom Erdogan has a complex transactional relationship, may have other ideas.
In the meantime, Sweden and Finland will try to calm Erdogan down. Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson expressed sympathy for all Muslims who were offended after the burning of the holy book.
“Freedom of speech is a fundamental part of democracy, but what is legal is not necessarily appropriate,” Kristersson wrote on Twitter.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said he remains in close contact with officials in Sweden, Finland and Turkey. Bloomberg reported that he criticized “the kind of behavior” that can be seen on the streets of Stockholm but also observed that it was not illegal and that “freedom of expression is a very valuable right”.