‘Kremlin would love it’: Finland wants to join NATO with Sweden but may go solo
Finland could consider joining NATO without Sweden if Turkey continues to block their joint attempt to join the military alliance.
During a television interview on Tuesday morning, Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto said that the two Nordic countries joining NATO together was “absolutely the number one option”, but that “we have to be ready to evaluate the situation.”
“Has something happened that in the long run would prevent Sweden’s application from going forward?” asked Haavisto.
The answer to his question seems to be yes.
On Monday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared that Sweden no longer had Turkey’s support for its NATO application after a Danish extremist burned a copy of the Koran in Sweden over the weekend.
Hours after his initial remarks, Haavisto spoke to reporters at a hastily arranged press conference in parliament and clarified his comments, saying he had been “imprecise” and that Finland still wanted to join NATO alongside the Swedes.
The foreign minister’s comments notwithstanding, the foreign minister’s comments were the first tacit admission that the Finnish government has looked ahead and considered scenarios that could develop, raising doubts about becoming NATO members in parallel with Sweden at a time when the alliance is striving to present a united front to Russia’s war in Ukraine.
“He has now said what has always been implied but previously unsaid, that our goal is always that we want to do this together with Sweden, but no one has definitely said that Finland would never go at it alone – not Sanna Marin, not Pekka Haavisto, not President Niinistö”, said Charly Salonius-Pasternaksenior researcher at the Finnish Institute for International Affairs (FIIA) in Helsinki.
“At his press conference, he clarified that as long as the process is moving, there is no need to think about anything else. Finland’s policy has not changed, it is only if the process becomes permanently frozen that we have to think about something else.” ” Salonius-Pasternak told Euronews.
At the moment, especially ahead of a Finnish parliamentary election in early April, no serious Finnish politician would actively campaign for the country to go solo with its NATO application and leave Sweden behind.
Finland sees a possible window of time for Turkey to give the green light to NATO applications between the Turkish elections in mid-May and the next NATO summit in Lithuania in June.
After that, if there was still no movement from Ankara, more serious discussions would be needed for the new government in Helsinki to figure out its next steps.
Finland’s disconnected membership “can work more for Sweden”
A possible worst-case scenario for NATO membership would be that Turkey ratifies Finland’s bid but not Sweden’s.
The Finns would then have to decide whether or not to deposit their own legal papers in Washington DC to take the final step towards becoming full NATO members, even if it meant leaving Sweden out of the military organization.
“It would be really bad for Finnish politicians and domestic politics. The Kremlin would love it if a NATO member has just gone against the will of the US and the other NATO countries. Geopolitically, this would be good for Russia,” says Salonius-Pasternak.
He expects Sweden to understand that Finland wants to join NATO together, but if the stars do not align, Finnish membership would still improve Nordic and Baltic security.
“And Finland could work more for Sweden as a member inside rather than outside.”