Gerasimov instead of Surovikin. What does the change in the leadership of the grouping of Russian troops against Ukraine mean
Russian Defense Minister Serhii Shoigu has appointed the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Army Valery Gerasimov, who was often blamed by supporters of the war for failures at the front, as the commander of the Joint Group of Forces in Ukraine.
Previously, from October 2022, this position was held by Serhiy Surovikin – he has now become Gerasimov’s deputy. Two more new deputy commanders – Commander-in-Chief of the Ground Forces Oleg Salyukov and Deputy Chief of the General Staff Oleksiy Kim.
“Increasing the level of leadership of the special operation is connected with the expansion of the scope of tasks, ensuring the organization of closer interaction of species and genera,” the military informed the Ministry of Defense.
Reshuffles in the command of Russian troops in Ukraine are taking place against the background of news about fierce battles for the town of Soledar in Donetsk region, where 10,000 residents lived before the war. A Russian military message said Soledar was blocked by Russian paratroopers from the north and south, but Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said heavy fighting was ongoing in the town.
Taking Soledar may be less for Moscow primarily from the point of view of reputation. From the beginning of the military campaign in Ukraine until July, the Russian army captured dozens of Ukrainian cities, and then only lost them one by one.
Retreats from Kharkiv Oblast and Kherson caused a flurry of criticism of the military leadership of the operation. One of those whom the Russian supporters of the war against Ukraine called responsible for these failures was Valery Gerasimov.
Late last year, analysts at the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted that the Kremlin had refrained from releasing Gerasimov to the public for almost ten months, and now that the second year of the war is about to pass, it is likely to try to reintroduce him (into the public domain. – Ed.) as the next state responsible for this war, came to the consolidated ISW.
On December 18, during the first publicly announced visit to military headquarters in 10 months of war, TV channels showed Russian President Vladimir Putin talking to Shoigu, Gerasimov and Surovin. At the end of December, the chief of the general staff – also for the first time after a long break – appeared on the screens independently, spoke before the military attachés of foreign countries.
A popular general and “difficult decisions”
Serhiy Surovikin was appointed commander of the Joint Group of Forces in October 2022 – shortly after the surrender of Lyman by the Russian military. Against this background, his appointment caused optimism among the founder of PMK “Wagner” Yevgeny Prigozhin and the head of Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov, who criticized the Ministry of Defense. Kadyrov called Surovikin a “real army,” and Prigozhin a “legendary personality.”
Ten days after his appointment, Surovikin became the first Russian military commander whom the authorities decided to show on television after the invasion began.
During the speech, which was shown by the TV channel “Russia 24”, Surovikin, among other things, promised “difficult decisions” regarding Kherson. Already in November, the Russians left the city. The version of Surovikin’s appointment was always connected with the desire of the Kremlin to transfer to him the responsibility for the withdrawal of troops from the only regional center that can take over Russia during the war.
As a result, Sergei Shoigu formally made the decision to withdraw after Surovikin’s report, and Putin did not even comment on it.
Experts of the Institute for the Study of War noted that even the surrender of Kherson did not harm Surovikin’s reputation among supporters of the war. On December 31, Vladimir Putin presented Surovikin with the Order of St. George of the 3rd degree, the state agency TASS reported.
The day before, it became known about another change in the command of Russian troops in Ukraine. Colonel-General Oleksandr Lapin, who was also harshly criticized for military mistakes, receives the position of chief of the main staff of the ground forces, according to the mass media. It was Lapin Kadyrov, Prigozhin and some pro-war bloggers who put the responsibility for the failures of the Russian army at the front, in particular, for the retreat from Liman in Donetsk region.
According to the Russian political scientist, Putin’s former co-writer Abbas Galyamov, this is recognized as an admission that “Putin demonstratively ignored the opinion of non-systemic players like Prigozhin and Kadyrov and took an official side.”
Russian political scientist Kateryna Shulman, who condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, believes that Putin’s invalid reshuffles testify to the hardware victory of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
The Russian pro-government Telegram channel “Rybar” writes that Surovikin, who was nicknamed “General Armageddon” for airstrikes on civilian objects, was unable to prove his effectiveness to the Kremlin.
“On Surovik’s account, the strikes on the energy system of Ukraine that did not lead to its complete collapse, the decision to regroup on the left bank of the Dnieper, the problems of the mobilized, the tragedy near Makiivka and the debutantes (independent operations of the “Wagner” PVK). – ed.) in Soledar and Bakhmut. Agree, in the eyes of the upholsterer, the list of achievements, which are now recorded on the account of “General Armageddon”, is controversial, this channel writes.
At the same time, Gerasimov’s promotion took place against the background of harsh public criticism of him by the founder of the “Wagner” PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin and his fighters, who publicly depicted Gerasimov in videos and accused him of a lack of ammunition.
Prigozhin had previously, at least publicly, repeatedly praised Surovikin.
In Ukraine, the adviser to the head of the Office of the President, Mykhailo Podolyak, ridiculed the reshuffle of the nobility.
“Change/don’t change commanders with united groups, but endure until the very end. Because you “like/dislike… a beauty,” he wrote in twitter.
Columnist of the Russian service of the BBC Ilya Abishev about Putin’s permutations
Valery Gerasimov’s new position is neither a demotion nor a promotion, after all, the post of Chief of the General Staff remains with him. It has not been proved that there is a change of responsibility – Gerasimov was responsible for everything related to military operations in Ukraine even without this appointment.
The transition of General Surovikin from the post of commander of the united group of Russian troops in Ukraine to representatives – Gerasimov was and still is his immediate superior does not appear to be a significant decrease. And this position is quite shaky – today it is there, tomorrow it may not be there.
The most important thing is the other. There can be no doubt that the decision on the new appointment was made by Putin himself, and not by Gerasimov’s formal superior, who has no military education and experience, Defense Minister Shoigu.
This means that with the heavy defeats of the Russian army in the Kharkiv, Donetsk and Kherson regions, Gerasimov, and then Surovikin, were accused by many supporters of the war of almost treason, Putin still bet on the old, as he considers, proven cadres.
This can also be attributed to the promotion, which became known yesterday, to the position of chief of the main staff of the ground forces of General Lapin, the founder of which Yevgeny Prigozhin called “Wagner PMC” unfit, and the head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, demanded to resign in the ranks.
The positions of Kadyrov and Prigozhin as the main critics of the Russian Ministry of Defense seemed to strengthen with each failure of Russian military personnel. With the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Kadyrov rose from major general to colonel general, and Prigozhin received unprecedented carte blanche – he was allowed to recruit and throw into battle tens of thousands of prisoners, in particular, those convicted of serious violent crimes – under guarantees their pardon (to which only the president has the right).
Also, the employees of the Federal Penitentiary Service, who had seen a lot, were shocked by this, and the unexpected strengthening of Prigozhin’s positions greatly restrained both the security forces and others close to the body.
After today’s appointment of Gerasimov, two assumptions can be made. Prigogine, despite all his efforts, was unable to achieve the unique efficiency of his “Wagner” PMC and win the under-the-carpet hardware games. On the other hand, Putin has only one deck of cards, and he has no intention of changing it.