Sweden’s Arctic policy 2023: A 12-month outlook
Current events affect the possibilities of implementing Sweden’s Arctic policy. The tense relationship in Europe with the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war challenges Swedish security policy and raises demands for countermeasures. A pending membership in NATO may be the most important. Its importance lies in the increased interest of NATO and its global adversaries in the Arctic region.
Sweden’s Arctic policy, which was released in 2020, covers the Swedish priorities in the Arctic region. The document mainly focuses on security, climate and environment, business and trade relations and good living conditions. Contemporary developments in the region have implications for domestic and foreign policy over the next 12 months. In addition, Sweden has a new government in place since the election in September 2022. The transition will likely contain different priorities than those that the previous government developed.
KJ-1: It is highly likely that Sweden will intensify its joint military presence in the Arctic region over the next 12 months.
- There are indications of a change in Turkey’s policy towards Swedish NATO membership since the election of the new government in September 2022 [source].
- Sweden is strengthening its military ties with other NATO members during the application process. Among them are Denmark and Norway within the Nordic defense cooperation (Nordefco) [source].
- During the application process, several NATO members ensure military protection for Sweden [source].
- Following NATO’s increasing interest in the Arctic region [source]the implications for joint exercises on Swedish territory are widespread.
- In Sweden’s strategy for the Arctic region, efforts are articulated to increase cooperation for regional security [source].
- After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and increased activity in the region, the consequences for Swedish and NATO countermeasures are widespread.
KJ-2 It is highly likely that Sweden will move towards a climate adaptation policy instead of climate prevention during the next 12 months.
- In Sweden’s strategy for the Arctic region, which was released in 2020, it is stated that: “The government will take a leading role in the implementation of the Paris Agreement to limit global warming, including in the Arctic” [source].
- Since the Tidö Agreement was released in October 2022, the newly elected government has faced widespread criticism for its limited focus on solar and wind power solutions [source].
- Sweden’s first report on climate adaptation, which was sent to the UNFCCC in mid-November, highlights priorities around adaptation more than prevention in the current climate agenda [source].
KJ-3 It is very likely that the tense security situation in Europe will limit attention to the Sami population in the next 12 months.
- Sweden’s strategy for the Arctic region highlights priorities for improving livelihoods for the Sami population [source].
- However, Sweden is a recurring object of criticism in its relations with the country’s Sami population [source].
- The Tidö Agreement released by the newly elected government lacks Sami subjects [source].
- The tense security situation in Europe and the Arctic put pressure on the Swedish government to promote regional security. In addition, military presence in the territory of Sápmi affects the livelihood of the indigenous population [source].
- There is a dilemma in conducting national and international military exercises on the territory of Sápmi. However, the ongoing NATO application and NATO’s interest in the region create incentives for an increased presence in these areas.
Intelligence cut-off date: 30 December 2022