Sweden, Finland try “future ally” route with Turkey in bid to join NATO
HELSINKI – Finland and Sweden have adopted a joint “future ally” strategy with Turkey in a bid to speed up their NATO membership – something blocked by Ankara’s government.
Turkey has refused to ratify Finland’s and Sweden’s membership applications until the prerequisites are met. Furthermore, Ankara has accused the two non-aligned Nordic states of hostility to the country’s human rights record and of refusing to license defense companies in the two candidate countries the ability to export weapons to Turkey.
Twenty-eight of the alliance’s 30 member countries have already ratified the applications for membership in NATO submitted by Sweden and Finland. Hungary is expected to formalize its ratification in the first quarter of 2023.
Civil servants in Helsinki and Stockholm argues that the ongoing, intensified membership discussions and political bridge-building have helped create a higher level of trust to significantly improve relations with Ankara.
Above all, both Finland and Sweden has managed to advance talks with Turkey by agreeing to revise their restrictive stance on arms sales by domestic defense companies. The Turkish government has identified the arms sales reform as a prerequisite for its support for Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO applications.
Neither Finland nor Sweden introduced a formal ban on arms exports to Turkey. However, the two Nordic states have a policy of not issuing new export licenses for arms sales to the country, a position that was affected by ground attacks launched by Turkey against Syrian Kurds from 2016 to 2019.
“Gradually, we must reach a position where we can consider Turkey as a future ally. We must, as part of the overall consideration of arms exports to Turkey and the issuance of export permits, consider how best to develop a new mindset to achieve improved relations with Ankara, says Finnish Defense Minister Antti Kaikkonen.
Sweden’s Ministry of Defense takes a stance similar to Finland’s. Stockholm also maintains a technical ban on the export of defense equipment to Turkey, but the ministry is investigating what changes in policy are required, including legislative measures, for Sweden’s defense groups to be able to obtain export licenses to supply weapons to Turkey.
Finland and Sweden are pursuing what officials have described as an organic solution to the arms export issue. It would mean that Finnish and Swedish defense companies would be allowed to compete for Turkish military contracts, and that the governments would process applications for the export of defense equipment according to criteria reserved for so-called top-level exporting countries.
At the same time, Turkey has used the membership ratification process as an opportunity to push for concessions from other NATO member states. For example, Turkey wants the US government to approve the modernization of its F-16 fighter fleet and alliance members to lift the de facto arms embargo against Ankara.
– The negotiations with Ankara are complicated for various reasons, but most importantly we are moving together in the right direction, says Tobias Billström, Sweden’s foreign minister. “We are convinced that a positive outcome will occur and that the continued talks will ultimately lead to a full ratification of Sweden’s membership in NATO in 2023.”
Finnish President Sauli Niinistö told reporters on December 11 that Finland and Sweden’s NATO membership would take time.
“Hungary has told us that it will not be the last to ratify. In Turkey, the solution lies with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The timing of the ratification is unfortunately intertwined with internal politics in Turkey,” Niinistö said.
A series of high-level bilateral talks have been held between the Turkish government and representatives from the Finnish and Swedish governments since the beginning of winter.
Kaikkonen visited Ankara in early December. Despite progress and a visible “warming of relations”, the Finnish defense minister said he could not predict with certainty when Turkey might ratify Finland’s NATO application.
Turkey’s delay is also affected by internal politics and parliamentary elections to be held there in June 2023. NATO expansion is expected to emerge as a major issue in the election, a development that could delay a decision on ratification until the third or fourth quarter of 2023.
There are also differences on regional security issues that remain unresolved. In particular, before the NATO application process started, Sweden and Finland had questioned Turkey’s plan to establish a 18.6-mile-wide security zone in northern Syria.
By requesting Turkey’s support for NATO membership, Sweden and Finland have also found themselves defending their positions and policies against the Kurdish PYD Democratic Union Party and its armed militia, the Syrian Kurdish YPG.
The PYD has links to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, which the US and EU, including Finland and Sweden, consider a terrorist organization. Turkey has accused Sweden and Finland of harboring “PKK terrorists” and is failing to cooperate with Ankara on extradition orders.
Gerard O’Dwyer is Scandinavian affairs correspondent for Defense News.