what to expect from the rain and the cold in the next quarter?
Tomorrow, Wednesday December 21, astronomical winter officially starts in the northern hemisphere🇧🇷 This station will open at Winter Solsticethat is, at 21:47 Portugal continental and Wood and at 20:47 we Azores🇧🇷 From then on, we will experience weather conditions under the aegis of the winter season during 88 days and 23 hourswhich climatologically are guided by lots of rain and the lowest temperatures of the yearand in the most mountainous places of the country it can even reach to snow🇧🇷
How could it not be, the first days of winter 2022/2023 in mainland Portugal will be immediately marked by two of its most striking climatological elements: the rain and the wind🇧🇷 Despite a relatively ‘calm’ Wednesday (21) and a Thursday (22) from the meteorological point of view, Our country will once again be under the influence of a new sequence of Atlantic fronts and depressions starting next Friday (23rd)🇧🇷
Weather on Christmas Eve, Christmas and New Year’s Eve Precisely so, on the days before, during and after Christmas (this year it takes place on a weekend), the weather in Portugal is expected to be filled with rain and strong wind from the south/southwest🇧🇷 And as for the cold, typical of winter, don’t even see it! The temperature in our latitudes is expected to be mild until the 26th of Decemberand only afterwards, there is the possibility of starting to drop to normal values for the time of year, between December 27th and 31st.
Will the winter quarter be as rainy as the fall?
The rain that fell during the autumn months was immensely rewarding for mainland Portugal, having contributed to a substantial improvement in meteorological drought. which meanwhile, in the North and Center, has disappeared. According to official data, only 28% of the territory was in drought at the end of November. Despite the positive aspects, the rain, sometimes excessive and torrential, generated floods andmaterial damages and even deaths to be regretted, among other damages and occurrences.
According to the seasonal maps prepared by our Department of Meteorology here at Meteoredbased on the European model (ECMWF🇧🇷 for january 2023 forecasts are a considerably different meteorological panorama what has been endured throughout this month of December, the last of 2022.
So, must rain less than usual for a januarytaking into account the normal reference climatological values, from north to south of mainland Portugal🇧🇷 The treatment anomaly, negative throughout the territory, will be statistically more significant north of the Tagus – except in Nordeste Trás-os-Montes and Beira Alta.
The districts of Bragança and guardlike those south of the Tagus, there is a less pronounced rainfall anomaly. At certain points in our geographysuch as the south of the district of Lisbona peninsula of Setubalthe Alentejo coast and the western end of the Western Algarve, the expected values within the reference standard🇧🇷
On the contrary, February 2023 may register a weather pattern more in line with what is expected for a winter month🇧🇷 Meteored’s seasonal forecast map reveals, as of today, a small area of mainland Portugal stained in light green.
For the said area – corresponding to Minho (western part of the district of Viana do Castelo and the district of braga integer) – a positive precipitation anomaly is expected (between 5 and 10 mm), that is, it will rain there more than normal for a month of February. In the rest of our geography, stained in grey, rainfall values are expected pattern🇧🇷
Pará March 2023while the districts of Braga and Viana do Castelo may register a pattern exactly the opposite of February – drier than usualespecially in Alto Minho -, the remaining regions of mainland Portugal could experience a rainfall pattern similar to the previous month, with levels of rain framed within the reference climatological normal🇧🇷
So, for now, unlike January, the months of February and March do not presentin most of mainland Portugal, statistically significant anomalies not about the rain.
Will the cold finally assert itself in Portugal?
the cold weather is typical of autumn and winter overcoat🇧🇷 However, throughout the autumn, we have experienced markedly mild days, with a few occasional ones. What about January, February and March 2023, what to expect?
Our maps relating to the monthly average temperature anomaly indicate, in their projections, a general trend towards temperatures within the usual rangethat is, lower than those we have experienced in these last few weeks, but as normally accepted for winter months🇧🇷
Thus, leaving the map stained in gray from north to south of mainland Portugal, towards the January-February-March quarter of 2023This means that one of the likely scenarios is that yes, we will experience cold days and months, but not feel cold🇧🇷 Temperature values will generally remain within what would be expected for the winter months.
However, the occurrence of punctual episodes of extreme cold is not ruled outsince these models, with all their advantages and limitations, analyze only how large-scale atmospheric circulations, and not on a small scale. And the same applies, of course, to the precipitation anomaly.
What is normal in Portugal in winter, from the point of view of climatology?
Taking into account the climatological normal 1971-2000, The average temperature in mainland Portugal in January is 7.5 ºC, in February it is 8 ºC and in March it is 9.5 ºC🇧🇷 The North stands out as the coldest region, with an average temperature of around 5/6 ºC in the first two months of the year, as opposed to algarve and the Lisbon Metropolitan Area, clearly the “hottest” regions at this time of year in mainland Portugal.
Regarding rainfall, the months of January, February and March are some of the wettest in our country, ranking among the first six places, in a total of 12 months. Of these first three months of the year, January tends to be the wettest in mainland Portugal (143.5 mm accumulated average precipitation), followed by February (117.2 mm) and March (111.3 mm)🇧🇷