Meeting between Lukashenka and Putin – the ISW assessed the possibility of Belarus joining the war against Ukraine
Analysts indicate that, according to the commander of the United Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Serhiy Naev, during the talks in Minsk, the head of the Kremlin will raise the topic of wider participation of the army of Belarus in further Russian aggression.
Naev also said that before that, on December 17, Putin held a meeting with the Russian military command, at which both immediate and medium-term actions of the war were discussed.
“Taken together, Putin’s meeting with the Russian command, Shoigu’s alleged front-line visit and the meeting between Putin and Lukashenko indicate a new stage in the presentation, planning and conduct of the war and may foreshadow the resumption of offensive operations against Ukraine in the coming months,” ISW says.
At the same time, experts are convinced that the Russian army, reinforced even by the Belarusian armed forces, is unable to prepare and conduct effective large-scale mechanized follow-on operations in the next few months.
“The manpower, which the Russian Federation is forming from mobilized reservists and the annual autumn draft cycle, will not be sufficiently prepared to conduct fast and effective mechanized maneuvers. to equip new forces for the next operations this winter,” the Institute for the Study of War emphasizes.
Analysts do not rule out that, despite all the problems, Putin may try order to resume large-scale follow-up operations later this winter.
However, ISW continues to hold the view that “Lukashenko is unlikely to involve the Belarusian army (which will also be rearmed separately) in the invasion of Ukraine“.
The main turning points in the military operations on December 18:
- Andrii Yusov, a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) of Ukraine, plans that the Russian military has received a new batch of Iranian-made drones and is continuing negotiations with Iran on the acquisition of ballistic missile systems.
- Ukrainian and Russian sources said that positional battles continued on the Svatove-Kremmin line.
- Ukrainian and Russian sources reported ongoing fighting on the outskirts of Bakhmut and in the northeast and south of the city.
- Russian Ukrainian sources claimed that the military pushed Russian troops out of long-held positions near Bakhmut.
- A Ukrainian official said that Russian forces are redeploying units from the eastern (left) bank of the Dnipro River in the Kherson region, and that it is too early to say whether Russian forces are retreating. Russian and Ukrainian forces continued conventional artillery and missile strikes across the Dnipro River.
- The General Staff of Ukraine reported that on December 16, Ukrainian troops attacked two concentrations of Russian troops and two warehouses of militants in the Zaporizhzhia region, wounding 150 people and destroying 10 pieces of equipment. The mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, said that Russian troops are deploying “dragon’s teeth” anti-tank defenses in Melitopol.
- The occupiers continue to struggle with acute shortages of medical personnel and supplies.