with abregos and heavy rain, or calmer?
![Portugal; Lisbon; time; rain; Christmas Portugal; Lisbon; time; rain; Christmas](https://services.meteored.com/img/article/tempo-para-o-natal-em-portugal-com-abregos-e-chuva-forte-ou-mais-calmo-meteorologia-1670965978009_1024.jpg)
For what’s left of the week, Mainland Portugal will remain exposed to the passage of Efraín depression, which has been leaving, in the last 48 hours, heavy and persistent rain and floods in various regions of the country, especially in the Center and South, with particular emphasis on the Greater Lisbon and to Alto Alentejo (Portalegre🇧🇷🇧🇷
A further worsening of the state of the #time ️ in #Portugal mainland next Wednesday.
Until 00:00 on Friday, the whole country will reap the fruits of #rain 🇧🇷 Highlight for Minho, #Harbor🇧🇷 #Aveiro🇧🇷 #viseu and Serra da #Star🇧🇷 Risk of #full 🇧🇷. pic.twitter.com/HHVAAsDkZN
— Meteor | Tempo.pt (@MeteoredPT) December 13, 2022
As you cross the Iberian Peninsula, from southwest to northeast, the weather system will gradually lose intensity🇧🇷 With this in perspective, a few more rainy days are expected, full of clouds from north to south of mainland Portugal. But, what will come next?
Next week is already Christmas! Will it rain in Portugal?
The forecasts of the weather trend maps at our disposal suggest, for the moment, that next week (19-25 December 2022) will be marked by a powerful crested anticyclone in Europe🇧🇷 The emergence of this highs will cover a good part of the European continent, putting an end to the “train of depressions” in more southern latitudes.
except in Portugal continental, Galicia and some points of the westernmost communities of Spainwhere the precipitation anomaly is predicted, again, positive! And what does this mean? That next week it will be rainy again, although possibly less intense. The first days (19th and 20th) should be rainy, especially in Northwest Portugal, thanks to the possible arrival of an Atlantic front🇧🇷 But for the rest, between 21 and 25, the uncertainty in the forecast increases considerably due to the temporal distance.
![rain; meteorology; time; Portugal; Christmas rain; meteorology; time; Portugal; Christmas](https://services.meteored.com/img/article/tempo-para-o-natal-em-portugal-com-abregos-e-chuva-forte-ou-mais-calmo-meteorologia-1670966115833_1024.jpg)
Between the winter solstice (21) and Christmas Day (25)Wednesday and Sunday respectively, the deterministic model insists on a period of greater stability which, in theory, favors the presence of slightly cloudy skies, generalized absence of rain and a greater contrast of temperature night and nightwith the possible formation of frost in several areas of the interior of Portugal.
Against this backdrop of emotion, O european model (which contains our most trusted maps) cannot clearly define that the so-called crest anticyclone is that long-lastingso that at any time the forecast of rain for the period between the winter solstice (21) and Christmas (25) may appear during the next updates🇧🇷 And about that, you already know, always keep yourself updated and informed with us about the weather in mainland Portugal, Azores and Madeira🇧🇷
And will the winter cold finally settle in our country?
Not that it concerns the temperature is expected to drop the same, since Portugal and Spain will no longer be as subject to the involvement of subtropical air, as during the current week. Still, it is expected that the thermal values are higher than normal for the time of year from north to south of the country🇧🇷
![temperature anomaly; Christmas; time; meteorology; Portugal temperature anomaly; Christmas; time; meteorology; Portugal](https://services.meteored.com/img/article/tempo-para-o-natal-em-portugal-com-abregos-e-chuva-forte-ou-mais-calmo-meteorologia-1670966260834_1024.jpg)
The thermal anomaly will therefore be positive, between 2°C and 3°C above normalbeing between 3°C and 4° above normal at points in the Northeast Transmontano and the Beira Alta🇧🇷 Everything indicates that the normally cold winter weather will not arrive during Christmas week either.
Despite current forecasts, Christmas and New Year’s Eve could register the Atlantic circulation
Despite still being precocious know the status of current time at Christmas or the next dates on New Year’s Eveone of the scenarios that the European model considers as the strongest is that the pressured rallies continue to show some tendency to rise in latitude, favoring a somewhat weakened polar jet with considerable undulations. Although it has not tried to be a panorama as pronounced as the one that has marked these last few days, it is It is possible that the depressions may move towards low latitudes, with the inherent potential of directly reaching, or reaching, mainland Portugal🇧🇷
![precipitation anomaly; time; meteorology; Portugal; new Year precipitation anomaly; time; meteorology; Portugal; new Year](https://services.meteored.com/img/article/tempo-para-o-natal-em-portugal-com-abregos-e-chuva-forte-ou-mais-calmo-meteorologia-1670966454482_1024.jpg)
If this scenario materializes, we would be talking about some parties, from Christmas (25) to New Year (01), under the influence of the Atlantic flowbut less intense than the current one, with longer stable periods🇧🇷 If this flow is not intense, clouds and precipitation will only fall in some regions of the country. Still, the scenario in which the fronts cover Portugal from north to south in a more direct way, with rain eviction as they passed through our continental geography.
With these weather conditions in mind, snow, in principle, could only fall on the highest points of Serra da Estrelaand it allows more than that. In such a long term the snow forecast for a given daysuch as Christmas or Christmas Eve or New Year’s Eve, it’s impossiblebecause it is subjected to too concentrated in the “puzzle” of the pieces that make up the atmosphere.
although a temperature is displayed lower than the current oneif the scenario of the flow of Atlantic origin is established, the temperature could rise again, with relatively mild nights and days, and the values rise to a December. Still, the European model projects that the entire North Region and some points in the Center Region record temperatures within normal range for the time of year🇧🇷
short-term forecasts against long term results
For local-scale evidence that confirm or reject these trends, region by regionit is necessary to wait that deadlines are shorterof just a few days.
Long-term forecasts only have the ability to focus on large-scale circulations and systems. which, by themselves, are not able to define specific meteorological episodes on a small scale. What it succeeds in doing is providing some big picture clues🇧🇷