How Finland’s decision to join NATO makes Putin’s Russia more vulnerable amid Ukraine’s war
As the war between Russia and Ukraine escalates, Sweden and Finland’s attempts to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) become even more prominent. On November 24, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban announced that the country will ratify Finland’s and Sweden’s bid for membership early next year. The announcement came after speculation that both Turkey and Hungary were delaying the ratification protest. Orban’s confirmation makes the two countries’ membership a legitimate possibility. However, Finland’s membership in NATO has the potential to make Russia more vulnerable in the region.
In May, both Finland and Sweden applied to join NATO. What makes Finland’s decision more decisive is the fact that it is one of the few non-NATO countries that shared a border with Russia that is 830 miles long. Russia and Finland have a long history of enmity that began with the Soviet invasion of Finland in 1939. One thing that may worry the Kremlin is the fact that Finland’s membership in NATO has the potential to make Russia more geographically vulnerable.
Why did Finland choose to join NATO?
In May, Finland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that the country is ready to join the Western Alliance. NATO member states then signed the accession protocol on 5 July, making Finland an invitation to the alliance. Finland’s NATO membership will now be ratified by each member state. However, Finland’s intention to join NATO arose with the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Reiterating Finland’s intention to strengthen the country’s security by joining NATO, Finland’s MEA asserted in the statement, “NATO membership will strengthen Finland’s security in the changing security environment and also improve stability and security in the Baltic Sea region and Northern Europe.” Prior to that, the country kept a distance from the organization, Finland was one of the few EU states that was not a member of NATO.
The war between Russia and Ukraine changed the whole game. Not only did Finland openly criticize Russia for invading Ukrainian territories, but in September the country decided to restrict Russians from entering Finland. In its statement from the Finnish government in September, the news reads: “The government considers that the Russian mobilization and the rapidly increasing number of tourists arriving in Finland and transiting through Finland endanger Finland’s international standing and international relations.” Last week, the Finnish government announced that it plans to spend $143 million to build a barrier fence on the Russian border. Therefore, Finland’s need to ensure security was one of the reasons why the country applied for membership in NATO.
How will Finland’s membership in NATO make Russia vulnerable?
Finland shares the second longest border with Russia in Europe. Not only this, the land is inconveniently close to St. Petersberg, one of Russia’s most important cities, home to more than five million Russians. Before Finland applied to NATO, the Baltic states were considered, i.e. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania generally as the least defensible territory within NATO. In the event of hostility from Russia, the only way to reinforce NATO forces in the region was by land through the narrow Suwałki Gap between Russia’s heavily militarized region of Kaliningrad and Russian-allied Belarus. The gap is only 70 km wide and was difficult to defend.
But the whole dynamic will change completely with the entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO. The countries will be able to provide space for NATO warplanes and ships in the event of hostilities. Not only this, the entry of the two countries into NATO will turn the Baltic Sea into a NATO-dominated lake, and the only Russian control points remaining will be around St Petersburg in the Gulf of Finland and their enclave around Kaliningrad. With this, all Russian movements in the region will be precisely tracked. Russia’s recent defeat in Kherson and the news that Finland and Sweden are joining NATO have the potential to make Moscow more vulnerable in the region.