Finland, Sweden, Ukraine face obstacles to joining NATO
November 2022
Past Gabriela Rosa Hernandez
As Russia pressed its brutal war against Ukraine, Finland, Sweden and Ukraine stepped up their efforts to become NATO members, but all continued to face obstacles.
After Russia illegally annexed four Ukrainian regions on September 30, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine had signed a fast-track application to join NATO, similar to what Finland and Sweden did in May.
“It is in Ukraine that the fate of democracy in the confrontation with tyranny is decided,” Zelenskyy said, according to the report The New York Times.
Although Ukraine has long sought NATO membership, the idea is highly controversial within the alliance. Zelenskyy’s government had largely sidelined the target as it focused on prosecuting the war against Russia with Western military and financial aid.
NATO leaders responded enthusiastically when Finland and Sweden applied for membership last summer, but the reaction to the Ukrainian announcement has been noncommittal. “Right now, our view is that the best way for us to support Ukraine is through practical support on the ground in Ukraine and that the process in Brussels should be taken up at another time,” US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters on 30 September when asked if Ukraine’s accelerated membership was possible.
Like Sullivan, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg reiterated that every democracy in Europe had the right to apply for NATO membership and that Ukraine’s application must be taken up by all 30 alliance members. “Our focus is now on providing immediate support to Ukraine, to help Ukraine defend itself against the Russian brutal invasion,” Stoltenberg also said on September 30.
NATO said at its 2008 summit that it would welcome membership bids from Ukraine and Georgia, but has never offered them membership action plans, which help would-be allies prepare for membership. The main reasons were the concerns of France, Germany and others about the potential impact on regional stability. Russia invaded Georgia in August 2008.
On October 13, Alexander Venediktov, deputy secretary of the Russian Security Council, said that Ukraine is well aware that its NATO accession could be a guaranteed escalation to World War III and that Russia’s position remained unchanged, according to the TASS news agency.
After getting off to a fast start, Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO bids have also run into problems. They formally submitted their applications on May 18. (See ACTJune 2022.) Since then, Turkey and Hungary have resisted joining the other allies in ratifying the new NATO accessions.
On 6 October, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan proposed that Finland and Sweden join the alliance separately and renewed his threat to block Swedish accession, Washington Post reported. Previously, Turkey had accused Sweden and, to a lesser extent, Finland of aiding groups that Turkey identifies as terrorists, including the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a Turkish separatist group, and an armed group in Syria that Turkey perceives as an extension of the PKK.
“As long as the terrorist organizations are demonstrating on the streets of Sweden, and as long as the terrorists are inside the Swedish parliament, there will not be a positive attitude from Turkey to Sweden,” Erdoğan said at a press conference after a European Political Community summit.
In late June, US President Joe Biden welcomed Turkey’s decision to agree to a trilateral memorandum, under the auspices of NATO, with Finland and Sweden that was meant to pave the way for the Nordic nations to join the alliance. Finland and Sweden reaffirmed their support for Turkey against threats to the country’s national security and insisted they join NATO together.
“When Finland, together with Sweden, eventually becomes a NATO member, our one Nordic family will finally be welded together by a common alliance as well,” Finnish President Sauli Niinistö said on October 10.
Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has accelerated such changes in the European security architecture by altering the threat landscape of its Western neighbors. “The threat is real,” said Colonel Magnus Frykvall, commander of Sweden’s Gotland Regiment during BALTOPS 2022, an annual NATO military exercise where Finland and Sweden have traditionally trained in the Baltic Sea alongside NATO forces.[W]I have seen what Russia is prepared to do in this case against a neighboring country.”
It is unclear when the Hungarian National Assembly will consider Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO applications. Turkey’s support will still be needed.