Election barometer: Switzerland remains an island of political stability
With a year to go before federal elections, the political landscape in Switzerland appears to have changed very little, despite upheavals such as the war in Ukraine, the energy crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic, according to a poll showing the support of major political parties show the voters.
This content was published on October 26, 2022 – 17:00
While Switzerland’s European neighbors are going through major political turmoil, the Alpine state remains an island of stability. In France and Italy, this year’s parliamentary elections led to major changes in the balance of power between the major parties. Such was the case last year in Germany, where the centre-left SPD put an end to the 15-year dominance of Angela Merkel and the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU).
Switzerland seems immune to such policy changes, according to the first poll on the 2023 federal elections, commissioned by Schweizerischer Rundfunk – the parent company of SWI swissinfo.ch – and released on Wednesday.
Since the last federal elections in 2019, public support for the largest parties has remained stable, according to the survey by the Zurich Institute for Social and Political Sciences (Sotomo). Only two of the six largest parties showed a change in voter support of more than one percentage point.
Green wave is fading
Despite extreme heat waves this year and the threat of power shortages in winter, the Greens seem to have lost political momentum. The centrist liberal Green Party saw the biggest gain of any party – a 1.5 percentage point gain in support since 2019. But the left-wing Green Party lost 1.5 percentage points.
“In a way, the green wave canceled itself out,” says the study.
2019 Green parties historical gains achievedexternal link at the expense of the right and left in general elections.
One of the factors behind the recent slowdown is that the Greens have not always managed to live up to their supporters’ expectations, Sotomo said. While the party attracted some voters from the left-wing Social Democratic Party because of its climate policies, some of them are now disenchanted with the Greens’ policies and are turning their backs on them, according to the polling institute.
“Since the environment is now a cross-party issue, only left-wing voters support the Greens,” says political scientist Sarah Bütikofer.
The liberal Greens, on the other hand, continue to benefit from the perception that they have something new to offer politically. The centrist party, founded in 2007, is targeting certain centre-right Radical Liberals, Center and Left-Green voters, the latest poll shows.
The Radical Liberal Party is also up one percentage point compared to 2019. A year ago, the party slipped in the polls, shaken by the sudden departure of its leader, Petra Gössi. However, the choice of Thierry Burkart as the new leader seems to have stabilized the ship, according to Sotomo.
With 16.1% of the vote, the radicals are catching up with the social democrats (16.3%). The latter lost 0.5 percentage points but retained its position as the second strongest party in Switzerland. Support for the right-wing Swiss People’s Party – still the strongest party – as well as for the Center and the Evangelical Party is stable.
Based on these overall results, Sotomo predicts a “small right-wing swing” for the 2023 election after a left-wing swing in 2019. Left-wing parties appear to lose two percentage points, while right-wing parties should gain 1.5 points.
The War in Ukraine
Although the green wave seems to be dying down, climate change remains the main concern of the Swiss. The latest poll found that climate change is one of the top three political challenges for 43% of voters. Climate protection is also the most relevant topic for 23% of those surveyed by Sotomo.
electoral barometer
The SBC election barometer is an online survey conducted by the Sotomo research institute in Zurich. It is the first survey before the 2023 federal election.
It is based on valid data from 21,038 respondents. It was conducted between September 26th and October 7th.
According to Sotomo, the error rate is +/- 1.3%.
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“The war in Ukraine also had an impact on the Swiss political landscape, but in an indirect way,” says political scientist Michael Hermann. National defense or crime and security are currently of little importance to the Swiss. On the other hand, many people have discovered that Switzerland is heavily dependent on foreign energy supplies. Around 36% of those surveyed see this as the greatest political challenge for the country.
The pollsters pointed out that the price increases caused by the war in Ukraine also have a certain impact on voters. For example, 29% of respondents cite welfare and cost of living as important policy challenges. However, health insurance premiums are an even greater concern for the population (32%) and, according to the survey, are contributing to the pressure on household budgets.
Translated from the French by Simon Bradley
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