The likelihood of an alarming situation with the arrival from Belarus?
Logically, such an offensive is possible, at least in terms of the military-political package.
The threat has now increased. You can see it in some markers. (there is such a conclusion in intelligence vocabulary). It is possible to determine the presence of signs of movement, actions in terms of content, whether an objection to the impact of a strike force is possible. Some of these markers have already appeared. There appeared the intention to create a shock group. In case of occurrence, the enemy of this land.
should it be a distraction? Or is it really preparation for a large-scale offensive? Now it’s hard to say. But I know that this situation is in the center of attention of the Commander-in-Chief, the General Staff, and the headquarters of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief and the National Security and Defense Council. And it is clear that they are preparing for this. The reason is that in Belarus the right to move. In particular, action is required at airfields, even additional runways are being built, if it gets into proper condition. Additional territories and premises are being prepared for a large number of personnel. The Russians are now moving destinations there. But also the fact that the Belarusian armed forces switched to a more intensive working regime. Actually, this mode of training and training is constant, it has been going on since the end of spring. They are actively drilled in various disciplines, from forcing water interference, ending with the evacuation of the wounded from the battlefield.
Today they say that the offensive will begin “literally tomorrow”, early. Because you need to create a shock fist, and Russia is hard. Due to the fact that due to accumulation, it compensates for the decrease in losses and equalizes the front speed in especially consumed areas. And Belarus has not fulfilled its promises. Lukashenka can significantly increase the number of armed forces and contractors. Due to the fact that part of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus repeats calls that they do not plan to use in the war (on occasion, today), nor are they exactly used by motivated, skilled warriors.
Here Lukashenka failed to close himself with this. now they are evaluating the movement. He has suspicions of the need for covert mobilization. But today we can only talk about 5 combat-ready brigades. This is not enough. Moreover, this part of the cases was repeatedly called by the brigade.
Today they say that the offensive will begin “literally tomorrow, too early
There is one more aspect. I think you previously reported that part of public transport and road equipment is transferred to the Russian Federation. This is not fiction. This is due to the fact that it was necessary to reduce the so-called higher supply to the front line. Therefore, the Russians took the available suitable equipment from the Belarusians. Now they are gradually compensating for these losses of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus at the expense of their arsenals. It travels to Belarus from Siberia, the Urals, the Far East, and this is a process of convenience. So I say: in order to prepare a strike force, you need to feel the time. They need to begin to compensate for the loss suffered by the arsenal of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus after they were shared with the Russians. Secondly, additional funds must be delivered in order for the offensive to take place.
But logically, such an offensive is possible at least by order of the military-political set.
FirstlyPutin understands that the next protracted and complicated war is out of the question. He understands that it is unlikely, that it is unlikely that this will be the only successful offensive against Kyiv. Seize power and thus force the Ukrainian authorities to sign a truce, peace, ultimatum (whatever you want to call it).
And the second option – Russians are very worried about the increase in the quantity and quality of consumption for the Armed Forces of Ukraine from our partners. And Belarus is a very profitable and convenient springboard for cutting off supply lines. It borders Ukraine with five regions. If the Russians create a shock fist and cut off supply lines (road, rail) from west to east, this will significantly limit the functionality of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
See the full version of the interview with Sergei Rakhmanin on Radio NV: