the end of the drought and the arrival of the cold?
In the last two weeks (especially in week of October 17th to 24th), the supply was plentiful from north to south of Portugal continental thanks to the arrival of very active frontal disturbances associated with depressions Armand and Beatrizas the first with great impact of the 2022/2023 season.
However, in most of the country the rain that has fallen is clearly insufficient to mitigate the severe drought.. According to data from National Water Resources Information Systemof the 15 monitored river basins, 12 still shown below, as of today, average storage for the month of October (1990/1991 to 2021/2022)except for the Ave, Douro and Arade basins.
Still, there is good news from the weekly newsletter of reservoirs: the total volume stored already shows a value greater than 50%, in this case 57%. The path towards the recovery of the water reserve in Portugal is being slow and heavy, but it is finally happening.
For this reason, People are “eyeing” the weather they could be in the next few weeks. Although this small one is known, several storms have been of great duration. Will it be the long-desired November turning point?
November weather features
Climatologically, November is the last month of climatological autumn. The temperature is, on average, almost 4 °C lower than in October.with the most evident thermal drops occurring in the Center and Alentejo regions.
In, the temperature is, on average, between 3 ºC and 4 ºC lower than in October, and the first frosts begin to appear in regions with a longer frost season, such as the mountainous lands of the Northeast of Trás-os-Montes, and the interior of the Alentejo.
In is already the cold attire at hand in November” since it is normal to start “tightening” the coat in order to winter. In mountainous lands such as Nordeste Transmontano, as frosts begin to appear more frequently and extensively, and in the North Region, the average of minimum temperature is close to 5.0°C. On the other hand, the Metropolitan Area of Lisbonthe Alentejo and the Algarveit has, on average, a maximum temperature of 16 ºC.
As far as the series is concerned, the climatic history indicates that the normal that as the westward flow takes place, with Atlantic fronts progressing from west to east in November rain.
November is among the Top 3 of the wettest months of the year from the north to the south of mainland Portugal: ranks third in the Northern and Central Regions, and second in the Lisbon, Alentejo and Algarve Metropolitan Areas.
A warmer than usual November is forecast
According to our model of trustin november it is expected highest temperature in relation to the average for the year in almost the entire Portuguese mainland (something that has been customary this year 2022), and especially during the first fortnightwith values that can be up to 2°C above normal without interior (eastern half) from the country. In the western range, thermal values are expected within the reference climate pattern.
At the time of writing this article, the maps point out that in the last part of the month the temperature values should normalizemainly in the North, Center and Metropolitan Area of Lisbon, with a large part of the Alentejo and Algarve, the temperature will remain up to 1°C higher than usual for this time of year.
be the beginning of the end of the drought?
In the last 10 days, as the first active and intense days of the season, they reached mainland Portugal. But unfortunately, the forecast that we manage at Meteor suggests that during the week of November as their long term they will re-import the domain around Portugal and Spainso it should rain less than normal across the entire geography of the Iberian Peninsula.
Even though, there are signs that indicate that in the second week there may be atmospheric movement, with some possible evidence within the climatological normal of referenceperhaps a little above normal in points along the western coastline.
in the second fortnight cargoes must move to the Central Atlantic and North Atlantic. If this scenario is fulfilled, it will be much more news for our country as it would translate into a second fortnight very dry and with generally stable weather. Furthermore, the great Iberian rivers (in our case, Douro, Tejo and Guadiana), as well as national ones (Mondego, Vouga, Lima, Ave and Sado) may suffer, with a possible worsening of drought.
And in the Azores and Madeira?
to the Archipelago of Wood A weather pattern is provided no significant anomalies in relation to temperature (which will be within the normal range), but very rainy (positive monthly mean anomaly 10).
As for the Archipelago of Azores a meteorological pattern with a positive monthly average (5 mm) in the Western Groups (Crow and Flowers) and Oriental (São Miguel and Santa Maria). The Central Group should record rainfall values within the usual range. With regard to temperature, a positive thermal anomaly is predicted for the 9 islandsof up to 1.5 ºC higher than normal in the islands of Corvo, Flores, Third and northern part of graceful. The rest will register up to 1°C higher than usual.