when will the war in Ukraine end – what do they say about the terms
Position of Ukraine
Ukrainian authorities are unanimous in their opinion that the war must end with the defeat of Russia on the battlefield. The successes of our soldiers at the front bring this moment closer every day, but the speed and amount of military support from partners has a great impact.
The President on the path to peace
It will be the end of the war with the aggressor for Ukraine return of all occupied territories. President Volodymyr Zelenskyi repeatedly emphasized this.
He believes that to pave the way to peace with real victories of Ukrainiansfree world sanctions against the Russian Federation and military aid to Ukraine.
“Only the complete expulsion of the invaders from the Ukrainian territory and the dismantling of the aggressive capabilities of the terrorist state will bring peace closer,” Zelenskyy emphasizes.
How long the war will last will depend on the speed of the supply of weapons to our country. The President reported that speeding up military aid to Ukraine means speeding up our victory.
“I can 100 percent accept the fact that this war depends on terms that are connected only with the supply of weapons. And only with that,” he said.
In addition, the head of Ukraine rejected any possibility of negotiations on the end of the war with the current leader of the Kremlin. After the actions of the Russian Federation regarding the annexation of 4 Ukrainian regions, Zelenskyi vived the decision of the NSDC according to which Ukraine officially refused to negotiate with Putin.
Budanov’s forecast
The significant successes of the Armed Forces since August, the reduction in the intensity of hostilities until the end of December, and the exit from the border by the summer of 1991 – such the scenario of the development of events at the front Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence, announced a few months ago. Part of the forecast has already come true, as the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian defenders began precisely at the end of August.
In his a new interview edition of the Observer, the head of the GUR stated that by the end of the current year, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will make significant progress at the front, and these will be significant victories.
By the summer, Ukraine will completely de-occupy its entire territory, including Crimea. At the same time, Budanov suggested that leaving the border in 1991 could only be “the beginning”.
“After the end of the war, a very serious political process begins related to changes in the current Russian Federation: certain regions are being recovered from Russia. Moscow will pay reparations to us, that’s all they are waiting for. This leads to a change in a certain economic center of the Russian Federation on our territory,” – so the head of the GUR predicted the military future of the Russian Federation.
A view of the course of the war from the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces
In September, Valery Zaluzhnyi outlined his vision for the further development of events at the front in a joint article with Lieutenant General Mykhailo Zabrodskyi. According to the military leaders, the war may continue next year.
“There is a separate issue of the duration of the disabled conflict. After all, in any case, it no longer fits either into the framework of the announced Russian “blitzkrieg” or into the duration of the active phases of hostilities in wars at the beginning of the 21st century. In any case, the duration of the war is already being measured. And the country has every reason to believe that this timeline will cross the 2022 calendar year,” the article states.
At the same time, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces believes that the liberation of Crimea alone will not be enough for the victory of Ukraine.
Also, after the deoccupation of the peninsula, Russia can maintain its military presence in the Black Sea region by rebasing the fleet to Novorossiysk.
In this case, the danger of missile strikes on Ukraine will remain, so it is necessary to turn the tide of the war. That these Armed Forces should make the Russians feel the failures and all the consequences of their aggression, and the West should continue to support Ukraine with heavy weapons.
“Everything can be fundamentally changed for appropriate planning and proper work with Ukraine’s partner countries,” Valery Zaluzhny emphasizes.
What they say in the West
Based on information about the latest successes of the Armed Forces during the counteroffensive, the British government assumed that the occupiers would be removed from Donbas to the territory of the Russian Federation to Catholic Christmas, if the progress of Ukrainian troops on the battlefield continues. Such a forecast was given by The Times at the beginning of October.
Former commander of US forces in Europe, Ben Hodges, also believes that Ukraine by the end of the year can clear the area as of the start of a full-scale invasionbecause the line of defense of the Russians is collapsing.
“I still hope that by the end of this year the Ukrainian forces will push back the Russian troops at the position of February 23, and by the middle of next year the Ukrainians will be in Crimea,” the general said.
He emphasized that after the liberation of Kherson, Ukrainian defenders will advance to Crimea and immediately deploy long-range MLRS. If the Armed Forces do this, the occupiers will be left trapped on the peninsula.
The protest of the US ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink expressed the opinion that Ukraine’s victory is unlikely to be quickbut assured of continued support from the side even after the end of the conflict of the States.
NATO also believes that Ukraine must prepare for a long journey. An effective counteroffensive by the Armed Forces does not mean the beginning of the end of the war.
At the same time, the Secretary General of the Alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, said that Russia’s victory in the war against Ukraine would be a defeat for NATO. That is why allied countries are increasing aid so that Ukrainians continue to defend themselves and liberate their territories from Russian occupation.
Will the onset of cold weather slow down the war
According to experts, the establishment of winter can somewhat slow down the pace of the offensive of the Armed Forces, but it will not affect the course of the war, after which Ukraine has an advantage. As The Washington Post writes, Russia can no longer seize new territories.
“Ukraine has so radically changed the course of the struggle that the only unresolved question is how much more territory Ukraine will return, not whether Russia will be able to achieve its goal,” Rob Lee of the Philadelphia Institute for Foreign Policy Research told the publication.
Former commander of US forces in Europe Ben Hodges notes that in winter, the conditions for waging war will become more difficult. But it will be more difficult for the occupiers to defend than for Ukrainian troops to attack. Hodges also added that the Russians are underequipped, unprepared and untrained.
Franz-Stefan Gadi, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, notes that low temperature to limit the ability of offensive actions at the front.
Also, according to him, hostilities will continue in 2023, the last time none of the parties has exhausted their military capabilities and is working on creating more advantageous tactical and strategic positions.