Orbán keeps NATO in the dark about Finland and Sweden
Concern is growing in Budapest that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is postponing the ratification of Finland and Sweden’s NATO membership for political reasons.
“There are rumors [in Hungarian political circles] that it may be due to Russia, because of the close relationship between Orbán and [Russian president Vladimir] Putin, says Ágnes Vadai, a senior member of parliament from Hungary’s opposition Socialist Party, to EUobserver.
“A Finnish and Swedish accession will make NATO stronger and that is not in Russia’s interest,” she said.
NATO members unanimously agreed at a summit in Madrid in June to allow the two countries to join.
The two Nordic countries already attend NATO meetings as “invited” members, but are not covered by its mutual defense clause until all 30 NATO states have ratified the enlargement.
About four months later, 28 out of 30 have already done so, leaving only Hungary and Turkey to decide.
“To date, this has been the fastest ratification in NATO’s modern history,” a NATO official said.
“Dirty political games”
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has made ratification conditional on Finland and Sweden handing over alleged Kurdish terrorists, amid ongoing talks on the issue between Ankara, Helsinki and Stockholm.
But Hungary’s parliamentary vote was supposed to be a done deal, given that Orbán’s ruling Fidesz party as well as the Hungarian opposition have publicly supported the move.
“The [Swedish] The government does not believe that Hungary has any unresolved issues regarding the ratification of Sweden’s and Finland’s NATO applications, says the Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
“Hungary’s foreign, justice and defense ministers have all openly stated that they support Sweden’s and Finland’s applications,” it added.
But for Vadai, Orbán’s calculations may include what she called “dirty political games” that go beyond his friendly ties with Moscow.
“Orbán also has close ties with Ankara, not only politically but also in terms of business relations, and Erdoğan does not want to be left alone as the only NATO country blocking [Finnish and Swedish] connection,” she said.
“It would help Turkey’s position if Erdoğan can say: ‘Look – even some EU countries also have doubts,'” she added.
“A third reason [for the delay] can also get access to EU funding, as Finland and Sweden are in the club that says funds should be withheld [due to Orbán’s abuse of rule of law at home]”, she also said.
The Hungarian Foreign Ministry did not respond to EUobserver’s questions.
Connection cannot be blocked indefinitely
Fidesz MPs are also keeping their domestic and Nordic peers in the dark, Vadai said. “They don’t tell us anything,” she said.
“When Finnish and Swedish delegates asked them about the delay while we were in Kigali, they blamed the delay on ‘practical problems’ with the parliamentary agenda, but that is simply not true,” she added, referring to talks on the sidelines of an international parliamentary conference in Kigali this weekend which she attended.
That was not true, she said, because the Hungarian parliament, which resumed work on September 26 after its summer break, could have voted on the topic as early as October 4 if Orbán had wanted.
It could complete the process in 24 hours with a four-fifths majority under a special fast-track procedure.
MPs will decide on the agenda for the next session, which will take place on October 24, later this week in a moment of truth, she noted.
There will also be voting opportunities in November and December, she added.
Vadai said Orbán cannot block the process indefinitely given the overwhelming support for Nordic enlargement in the West.
“He knows that as an EU and NATO member he cannot do this,” she said. “It is also in Hungary’s national security interest,” added the former shadow defense minister.
But if Orbán tries to help Erdoğan, Hungary could drag out next year, given suspicions among EU diplomats that the Turkish leader will not give the green light before Turkish elections in June 2023.
“Sweden has an ongoing dialogue with Turkey and Finland about the trilateral agreement [on counter-terrorist cooperation] was signed at the NATO summit in Madrid, says the Swedish Ministry.
“Further meetings are expected,” it added.
The Finnish Foreign Ministry declined to comment.