Ukraine has an advantage, escalation on the part of Russia will not change the course of the war
By launching missiles and mobilizing tens of thousands of new troops, Russia hopes to halt Ukraine’s advance, but Kyiv still has a clear advantage on the battlefield.
Efforts to counter Russia’s offensive against Ukraine by shelling Kyiv and other cities with missiles and mobilizing hundreds of thousands of reservists is a significant escalation of the war. But these actions are unlikely to change the dynamics of hostilities, which are now clearly leaning towards the success of Ukraine.
He writes about it The Washington Post with reference to assessments of Western intelligence and military experts.
Missile strikes alone do not have much strategic value, although they bring human effort and disrupt life in cities, but not far from hostilities.
Since the beginning of the attack on October 10, more than three dozen people have been killed and dozens injured. Ukraine’s energy infrastructure appears to be the main target, meaning some residential areas have been plunged into darkness.
But the conditions on the battlefield still favor the more mobile, highly motivated and better armed Ukrainian military, which in the foreseeable future will maintain an advantage over the clumsy, poorly equipped and tired Russian army.
U.S. and other Western officials predict Ukraine will continue its counteroffensive in recent months, even as the weather slows the pace of the war.
The pace of hostilities has already slowed down in recent days, after which Ukraine is strengthening its recently won positions.
According to military experts, the pace will slow down even more as winter approaches. At what point in the coming months the weather could force Ukraine to come again, said the Western official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. But for now, “Ukrainians retain the initiative and momentum,” he said.
“However, it is no longer expected that Russia can capture much more territory. Ukraine has so radically changed the struggle that the only unresolved question is how much more territory to Ukraine to return, not whether Russia will be able to achieve its goals,” said Rob Lee of the Philadelphia Institute for Foreign Policy Research.
According to him, the Ukrainian army, which at the beginning of the war was heavily armed with Russia, now surpasses the Russian army in almost all parameters.
Russia continues to experience heavy losses in forces and equipment and occupation of defensive positions, while Ukraine steadily receives supplies of new and technologically advanced weapons from its Western allies. According to American intelligence estimates, Russia lost 6,000 tanks, armored personnel carriers and other military equipment during the war, and some of them were captured by the Ukrainians intact and intact, adding to their arsenal.
“Ukraine has an advantage, and Russia is trying to match these advantages. As long as Ukraine continues to support NATO and continues to support artillery, Ukraine should continue to make progress,” Lee said.
It is difficult to predict whether the influx of up to 300,000 recently mobilized Russian soldiers aimed at the Ukrainian offensive will serve any purpose, said Konrad Muzyka, director of Polish defense consultancy Rochan.
Ukrainian officials say they have not seen any significant impact from those already on the front lines. But they do not discount the possibility that a huge influx of troops could complicate Ukraine’s task.
However, there are doubts about Russia’s ability to adequately train and arm such a large number of inexperienced military personnel, the Western official said. Those that have emerged so far “were exhibited with very, very limited training and very, very poor equipment,” he said. “They are unlikely to have any positive impact in the near future.”
Russia’s ability to launch missile strikes is expected to shrink, further limiting its capabilities on the battlefield, Western officials and military experts say. on which it is confirmed that Russia is running out of high-precision missiles that can be used to target key objects.
But as long as the strikes are aimed at civilians and civilian infrastructure and not at major military facilities, “they should not turn the tide of this war,” Muzyka said.
War in Ukraine
As members of UNIAN, Russian troops invaded Ukraine in the early morning of February 24. Including, from the territory of Belarus, which Lukashenko kindly handed over to the Russian invaders. The Kremlin did not declare war on Ukraine, but called the full-scale aggression a “special operation” aimed, in particular, at the “denazification” and “demilitarization” of the Ukrainian state.
On September 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the beginning of partial mobilization in the country. According to the Russian leadership, citizens with combat experience – up to 300,000 people – will primarily be involved in the war against Ukraine.
Putin’s statement is consistent with the analysis of many Western experts that Russia feels the need for human resources to continue the war, and Putin himself does not abandon the entire original intention to occupy the territory of Ukraine. At the same time, the leader of the “Wagner” PMC is engaged in recruiting prisoners.