US, NATO must bring Hungary’s leader Orbán ‘to his senses’
- Hungary and Turkey are the only two states that have not approved the addition of Finland and Sweden to NATO.
- Among the issues is the suspension of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, who has a close relationship with Putin.
- An ex-diplomat told Insider that the US and its allies must bring Orbán “to his senses”.
Applications by Finland and Sweden to join NATO in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have met with broad approval since the alliance formally invited the two Nordic countries to join.
However, Hungary and Turkey have yet to sign on to add new members to the alliance and are instead purposefully holding up the process.
A former ambassador told Insider that the US and its allies must bring Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán “to their senses” as increasingly authoritarian leader and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan continues to delay the process with his own ambitions in mind.
Both leaders have sought to leverage their own strategic interests in exchange for approving what would be a major expansion of the NATO alliance, interests such as security guarantees or appeasing other heads of state.
“Having to say that Hungary is a threat to the alliance is painful, but I think Hungary is a threat to the unity and integrity of the alliance,” András Simonyi, who was Hungary’s first ambassador to NATO and who was also an ambassador to the United States, told Insider in a recent interview.
“My question,” he continued, “is why neither the US nor others in the alliance are making a greater effort to bring Orbán to his senses. He would understand if he was addressed in the right way, which means clear and tough. , but I don’t see that it happens.”
Orbán is “testing NATO’s limits”.
Finland and Sweden – two countries that have historically been militarily non-aligned – submitted their applications to join NATO in May, in a move triggered by Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine. In June, the 30-member military alliance formally invited Finland and Sweden to become new members.
Nevertheless, national parliaments in each member state must approve new memberships because NATO expansion requires unanimous consent. More than three months later, lawmakers in 28 of the 30 countries have ratified changes to the treaty and approved the expansion.
But Hungary and Turkey are holding out, something both had previously signaled they would do.
Simonyi said Hungary has not given its approval because Orbán is sending a “couple of messages” to the alliance, among them that he does not want to be taken for granted or hear any outside criticism.
But there is another reason that should not be underestimated, Simonyi said, arguing that there is “no doubt” that Orbán is trying to please Russian President Vladimir Putin. “[Putin] love the idea that he has a buddy in NATO who is his spoiler, making things difficult, he added.
By holding out on approving NATO expansion, “Orbán is testing the limits, and he will go as far as he can. But he is not an idiot. He would understand if the limits were clearer – if the limits were clearer,” Simonyi said, adding that it is “surprising to me how the rest of the alliances are doing nothing to push back.”
Hungary’s ties with the European Union have been strained by Orbán’s close relationship with Putin, as well as his tough stance on Hungary’s press, academic institutions, legal system and immigration. Last month, EU lawmakers even voted to declare that Hungary is no longer a democracy and is instead “a hybrid regime of electoral autocracy.”
“That’s the bizarre part of it. He’s the guy who brought Hungary into NATO, and he knows how difficult it was,” Simonyi said, recalling standing next to Orbán when Hungary’s flag was first raised at NATO headquarters in Brussels after the central European country joined the alliance in 1999.
“Honestly, at that time he did a good job of supporting the United States,” Simonyi said. “And honest to God, I never would have thought he would turn his back on America.”
Hungary will sign off when Turkey does
Still, Simonyi said he believes Orbán will eventually sign off on NATO expansion, but the timeline may depend on his Turkish counterpart.
“When Erdoğan says yes, Viktor Orbán will say yes. I don’t think he sets the timeline, I think it’s Erdoğan who sets the timeline,” Simonyi said. “If he’s the last man standing, he’ll sign.”
Alper Coşkun, who is the former director-general of international security affairs at Turkey’s foreign ministry and who also served as the country’s ambassador to Azerbaijan, told Insider that there appears to be no sense of urgency on the Turkish side.
“The fact is in this case that Turkey has leverage over Sweden and Finland,” Coşkun said in a recent interview.
Among the issues that apply is safety. Turkey has accused the Nordic countries of supporting militant groups it considers to be terrorists and wants greater support in the fight against these groups. Turkey also wants the two countries to extradite alleged members of such groups and has strongly opposed their embargo on arms exports. And last comment made about Erdoğan on Swedish state TV has led to further tensions between the countries.
There are also domestic political considerations, Coşkun said, explaining that Erdoğan could present any deal or concession from Finland or Sweden — or even from the larger NATO alliance — as an achievement in the run-up to the country’s June 2023 presidential election.
Although some concessions have been made to clear the way, some roadblocks still remain.
“I think Sweden and Finland joining the alliance is in Turkey’s security interest,” Coşkun said, adding that the two countries have traditionally supported Turkey’s efforts to Join European Union. “Ultimately, I think it’s in Turkey’s interest overall to find a reasonable way out without prolonging it too much.”
The two Nordic countries would give the NATO alliance a significant boost to its overall military capabilities across all domains – air, land, sea and intelligence. Bolstering such capabilities may come at a time when it faces a more aggressive Russia, albeit one that has not emerged as formidable in the war with Ukraine as it was once believed to be.
Finland and Sweden would also help “stabilize” NATO, Simonyi said, because they are both strong and mature democracies, as opposed to transitional democracies that could fall back in the future.
“I think what’s happening now is that we’re fixing an unnatural situation,” Simonyi said of NATO enlargement. “It’s a real shame we didn’t do it in peacetime. And it’s a real shame it’s happening because there’s a war going on in Europe.”