Is Belarus capable of attacking Ukraine now?
All-in fools
In the fall of 2022, Russian aggression against Ukraine clearly entered a new phase. After a series of defeats by the “Russian army” on land, water and in the lake, Moscow decided to raise the stakes and go for broke.
Read also Why in Ukraine the mass shelling by the Russians does not change anything
To this end, Russia announced a mass “partial” mobilization, a heavy frightened world of a new nuclear war, and even carried out the most massive “bombing” of the environment 24 –
25 February. As a result of the latest accident, 19 people were taken out of a building of critical value, and large cities were left without electricity for several hours.It seems that Russia thus added mysticism to its aggression against Ukraine to imitate one of the Egyptian punishments, namely –
darkness. The next item on the “program” should have been, probably, the “invasion of frogs”, because “swarms of flies (drones)”, “hail of fire” and “invasion of locusts” (in fact, an invasion and an attempt to destroy the crop) along with the capture and destruction of children – there were already firstborns.Kozyrny Lukashenko
For this role, Putin chose his longtime accomplice –
self-proclaimed President Alexander Lukashenko.For a long time, all the local residents of Lukashenka were engaged in “winding” – Belarusian citizens did not invade Ukraine in the meeting and March together with the Russians, they did not do this in summer and autumn. Moreover, Lukashenka officially recognized the fact of participation in the war in Belarus.
As for our participation in the special operation in Ukraine, we are participating in it. We do not hide it. But we don’t kill anyone. We don’t send our military anywhere. We do not violate our obligations,
– spoke Lukashenka at a security meeting on October 4, 2022.
Lukashenka admits his complicity in the aggression – watch the video:
Belarus also supplies the aggressor with weapons and equipment, missiles and shells, fuel and lubricants, logistics and allows its citizens to participate in aggression as mercenaries in the service of the Russians.
This “bouquet” will inevitably push Lukashenka and his subordinates to the dock of the future tribunal, if, of course, he lives to see it. Recall that far from all the defendants of Nuremberg or The Hague lived to see the verdict, for example, Slobodan Milosevic did not receive such privileges.
To the topic Lukashenka was activated instead of the “nucleus”
On October 10, Lukashenka came out with a statement about the deployment of joint official groups with the Russians of the so-called “Union State”. The details and specifics of the “father” of the standard for Belarus were not named, but Russian propagandists and some Ukrainian media hurried to spread these words as preparation for the second recommendation of the invasion of Ukraine with the territory and the fact that “Putin has finally put the squeeze on Lukashenka.”
Army of the smoker
Despite the pretentious statements of Lukashenka and his henchmen about the loyalty of the army, which has been preparing for “something” for more than 20 years, the facts are the opposite. The Belarusian dictator has up to 40 thousand military personnel, of which he is ready to field no more than 20 armored personnel carriers, and also (Lukashenko dreams of 500,000 reservists). Of course, all these people have no combat experience of modern warfare and no particular desire to go to their death.
Also, the Belarusians were left without equipment, and especially shells and missiles. All this “good” was given to the Russians and went to the war in Ukraine by a roundabout way.
Lukashenka’s plan provides for the unification of the Belarusian army with units defeated in the spring-Russian units (1st Guards Tank Corps, 20th Army and the remnants of the “Gostomel landing force”). They are considered to be “revived” at the expense of newly arrived “mobiks” – the same heroes of absurd commercials from Tik-Tok and Telegram.
At the choice of the commander of the Joint Forces of Ukraine of the Armed Forces, Lieutenant-General Sergey Naev, these soldiers need somewhere 2 –
3 months to prepare for transformation into a full-fledged combat unit. But what will happen next?Mannerheim Line 2.0
“Silence” on its northern border, Ukraine uses a lot of workers. After the North was liberated from the enemy, a powerful line of defense was created on the border with Belarus and the border area was turned into a modern fortress.
Ukraine increases northern speed: watch video
All this time, the authorities of Belarus arrested Ukraine in aggressive plans and even summoned the Ukrainian ambassador to Minsk, who showed – “Where the attack on Belarus was being prepared.”
October 8 is generally an anecdotal incident. The head of the State Border Committee of Belarus, Anatoly Lappo, was forced to admit that Ukraine cannot attack his country.
The situation is in the south according to opinion. The efforts of the Ukrainian side are focused on building up the cover of the state border. At present, almost all border bridges have been blown up, and automobile and railroads have been blown up, and border roads have been completely mined. To the extent that there are anti-tank mines in three rows on the roads,
– the main Belarusian border guard was upset.
Thus, if Belarus decides to invade, the hastily assembled army will repeat the “feat” of the Russians in the Northern War of 1940 and storm the “Mannerheim Line 2.0”, but without the support of aviation and modern artillery (because this has long been where -something dies in the Donbass or near Kherson), possessing high natural strength and without surprise. Recall that all this, to one degree or another, was with the elite units of the Russians in 2022, but there was a fiasco near Kyiv.
Recall that at that time Lukashenka effectively “winded” and did not give Putin his soldiers, but this time, instead of elite, but still fallen combatants, the Russian dictator can give a satellite only “partially mobilized.” And that’s it. You do not need to be an ISW analyst to discuss that Fate will cross the Ukrainian road in case of danger. The only question is
how quickly the Belarusian regiment named after Kastus Kalinovsky turns into a brigade and whether it becomes a delayed army.Room for Maneuver
The complicity of the Lukashenka regime in rare cases of Russians unties the hands of Ukraine and makes all objects on the territory of Belarus legal places for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. From the point of view of international law, the Belarusian airfield in Zyabrovka is no different from the Russian airfield in Shaikovka or Millerovo. And if Russia cannot happen with Ukrainian missiles and ammunition, then what is said about Belarus.
It seems that this is common in Minsk, so a common army with the Russians will be another profanity and sabotage. Lukashenko managed for many years to slow down the takeover of Belarus by the Russians and dig out billions of dollars from the Kremlin for the ideas of the so-called “Union State”. In the winter of 2022, it was obviously pinned to the wall by Putin, but it grew even more “to loop”, confining itself to a meme statement about the victory over Ukraine and its TRO with machine gun heroes in 3-4 days.
Perhaps we are now seeing a regular maneuver. As this arises, one can explain the peacefulness of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which do not reduce shelling from Belarusian territory or airspace, although there are legal grounds for this and there are. Also, Ukraine does not break off the investigation of relations with Minsk, although this could have been done a very long time ago.
Maybe Lukashenka himself sees himself in the dock of the future tribunal not as a new Milosevic, but as his successor –
Milan Milutinovic, who made a discovery in The Hague that he was not in control of the armed forces of the military security, and therefore avoided the location.