Climate: Portugal “the big problem of change will be forest fires and lack of water in agriculture”
Warmer and drier weather, with frequent and long heat waves, and critical fires. This is the weather we can expect in Portugal — and it is compatible with heavy rains capable of causing floods, as happened in Lisbon this Monday night. The strong circulation became one of the main streets of the capital, where there were occurrences, according to the city’s Sapadores Firefighters.
“When it rains very heavily, the water doesn’t flow because the surface is waterproofed”, says climatologist Alfredo Rocha to Expresso. “In Lisbon it is possible to build a series of channels for the construction of rainwater to avoid these situations”, he adds. However, while the General Drainage Plan for Lisbon does not start (as it only starts in January), the clogged works in the downspouts, pipes and the drainage of rainwater cause floods in the capital.
For the professor of meteorology and climatology at the University of Aveiro, “the big problem in Portugal will be the lack of forest fires and water in agriculture” — not least because we depend on Spain for water availability in rivers. “In terms of fires, the most critical areas are undoubtedly the interior and centre, where there is more heat and fuel to burn. In terms of lack of water, the Alentejo and the Algarve are more worrying”, considers Alfredo Rocha.
Portugal has “factors more conducive” to forest fires than other countries with Mediterranean climates, such as Spain, France, Italy or Greece. According to the researcher at the Center for the Study of the Environment and the Atlantic Sea, “we are facing the Atlantic Ocean where the prevailing winds come from”, in addition to having “a lot of complex fences” and “an orography”, with “mountains and joints”. that make it difficult to access and fight the flames.
Already the lack of water and the hotter growing time are replaced by others more resistant to heat stress and often. “Too many examples. This could mean that, in the not so long future, we will have less varied agriculture.
Four biggest droughts were in the last 20 years
It’s no coincidence: four of the biggest droughts that have been climbed all over Portugal, in the last two, were in the last 20 years. Who says it is the geophysicist Ricardo Trigo. And the main reason is not the increase in rain, “it’s because the air temperature is much higher, there are a lot more heat waves and there is a lot more water that is evaporated”. It’s not just raining less, it’s evaporating more, stresses the specialist in Climate Variability and Extremes at the Dom Luiz Institute, of the Faculty of Sciences of the University of Lisbon.
Much of the water that falls between winter and spring is evaporated before the hottest season. “We arrived at summer with brutal agricultural, vegetative and water stress”, as happened this year. Due to the drought and the intense stresses of the water, the soils of fire are capable, capable of carrying much of the water and at the feet of the great part. As a provocation, remember the great times, “as you see Serra da Estrela after the fires” by Ricardo Trigo.
The requested and long hot flashes will be another challenge. “In a few decades we will have about 60 days of heat waves a year, when we currently have five or six”, he warns. And the elderly population, as it is more fragile, is the one who will suffer the most consequences such as extreme weather conditions. “In addition to raising awareness among people, who have to hydrate themselves and protect themselves from the heat, hospital emergency services must be adapted to a new reality”, warns the professor at the University of Aveiro.
Mainland Portugal and Azores more in the crosshairs of hurricanes
As climate change will also affect the Azores and the Iberian Peninsula, since the temperature of the sea water is higher and this ‘feeds’ tropical cyclones. “In the Azores and Iberian Peninsula there are few, but there are more intense ones than there used to be. 2018 that entered Figueira Foz and Aveiro and found Ricardo Trigo in a lot of damage, or in Leslie in Danielle this year, or in Leslie in a lot of damage”, recalls Ricardo in many damages.
The approach of more intense hurricanes can be particularly serious considering that they can be associated with other phenomena. The climatologist gives the example of the fires of October 2017, in Portugal, which were boosted by the passage of tropical cyclone Ophelia. “It caused the winds to be very intense from south to north” and, consequently, “everything burned at an unbelievable speed”, says the expert. Exhaustive: “they could not have been caused what were spoiled and not spoiled if brutal — it was they who were spoiled and not spoiled if brutal.”