Expert: Finland, Sweden NATO accession probably not until next summer | News
The connection may only take place next summer, at least a year after both countries have formally applied for membership, reports ERR’s Europe Correspondent Joosep Varik.
Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, this week repeated comments he made in early summer that Sweden in particular is a safe haven for terrorists, including from Kurdish groups.
Domestic elections are also a factor, ERR reports.
Amanda Paul, an analyst think tank at the European Policy Center (EPC) who specializes in Turkey, said the Turkish parliament was not expected to make a decision before next summer, when both presidential and parliamentary elections should have taken place there.
Paul said: “This is important for Turkey, as the Kurdish Workers’ Party is internationally recognized as a terrorist organization, both by the EU and the US. This will be crucial in Erdogan’s electoral program in next year’s Turkish elections. As a result, he will not intend to withdraw from their current positions in the near future.”
While the entire alliance is otherwise strongly behind both countries joining NATO, there aren’t too many options to pressure Ankara, Paul continued.
She said: “How could they tell Ankara to stop this nonsense, sign the agreement and ratify the applications. If the US was in the same situation – and we know their attitude towards terrorism – they would take the same attitude. They would expect extradition by terrorists who had planted the bombs on their land.”
Ratification processes for new NATO members vary from member state to member state, for example whether they are carried out at the legislative or executive level, but there must be unanimity.
Hungary is another member state that has been doubtful about the Finnish and Swedish applications, but by next summer these issues should have been resolved, says Hungary’s high-profile justice minister, Judit Varga.
The minister said: “This is on the agenda of the Hungarian parliament. Of course we will confirm their accession to NATO. This is just a matter of timing. Believe me, Hungary fully agrees and supports the accession.”
Viktor Orban’s Hungary has been seen as less ready on the issue, in connection with Russian aggression in Ukraine, possibly also due to perceptions of the treatment of Hungarian minorities in the far west of Ukraine.
The only other delay, Slovakia, is likely to ratify the accession of Finland and Sweden next week.
Both Finland and Sweden formally applied to join NATO in May, after weeks of speculation about their position in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, starting on February 24.
At the NATO summit in Madrid at the end of June, Turkey seemingly backed down on the issue, while Estonia ratified Finland and Sweden’s applications less than a week later.
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