Expect a shootout as Roma welcome Atalanta to the Olimpico on Sunday
A minute there against HJK on Thursday (well, 45 minutes to be exact), it felt like it Roma was meant for another well-intentioned but ultimately disappointing. Despite the obvious talent against Helsinki, Roma struggled to create much of anything in the first half, either running into a wall of defenders (or simply running out of space) whenever they entered the final third.
José Mourinho followed in the middle of a brutal three games in six days, decided to bring on Paulo Dybala to start the second half. With his day off interrupted, Dybala broke the deadlock after about 70 seconds with another impressive left-footed strike.
Dybala’s goal was quickly followed by Lorenzo Pellegrini, who was lucky enough to watch the ball hit his chest into the back of the net, while Andrea Belotti scored his first goal for Roma around 20 minutes later. What started as frustration ended in a flourish as the Giallorossi (or Rosanero so to speak) ran out three-nil winners and gained a much-needed hold on Europa League Group C.
Unfortunately, things will not be so easy tomorrow against Atalanta. With an undefeated record (four wins and two draws), Gian Piero Gasperini’s team has started the 2022-2023 season on the right foot. They may not be bowling the competition as usual, but with 10 wickets in six matches, the Goddesses have thrown themselves back into the game. the Champions League discussion at the beginning of the new season.
After struggling against Atalanta in the final days of the 2010s, Roma have turned the script over the past 18 months, winning their last two matches 5-1 on aggregate, including a 4-1 win in Bergamo last December.
But whether or not the streak survives depends on a few key factors, so let’s take a look at what to look out for in Sunday’s glitz at the Stadio Olimpico.
Teun Koopmeiners
The man who was almost a Roma midfielder last year took some time to adjust to life in Italy. He looked at his production and playing time during his first season with Atalanta. After scoring 15 goals and providing five assists in 2,700 minutes for Alkmaar in his native Netherlands in 2020-21, Koopmeiners managed just four goals and one assist in 2,100 minutes last season. It’s not uncommon for players, especially midfielders, to experience a dip in form when changing leagues, but this was quite a steep drop for the 24-year-old Dutch midfielder.
However, it pains me to report that Koopmeiners has effectively put his demons behind him, scoring four goals and providing one assist in 540 league minutes, setting him on course for one monster campaign. But when you peel back a few layers, his performance, while still incredibly impressive, isn’t as durable as it might appear on the surface.
With half of his four goals coming from outside the area, Koopmeiners doubled the expected number of goals (2 xG) in his first six games. While that’s not to detract from his hot start, given that each of those kicks — a nearly 30-yarder against Verona on opening day and a field goal against Torino in early September — produced 0.2xG, Koop has been low. lucky so far.
Despite the statistical nuances, you never know what might happen on a given Sunday. Koopmeiners has been Atalanta’s best player in the first six rounds and will be a huge challenge for whoever Mourinho throws into the midfield tomorrow.
Paulo Dybala
La Joya’s inclusion in this section is a testament to his powers and a warning to the rest of the club. Dybala has scored four goals and assisted in his first two appearances for his new club (all competitions) and has lived up to the hype and perhaps even exceeded it. Although Pellegrini has done his part (one goal and four assists), when Dybala is not on the pitch, the creativity, aggression and inspiration have dropped noticeably.
It almost reminds me of this (in)famous quote from Homer Simpson:
No, Dybala is not the original dog from hell (You mean Cerberus?), but when he’s not on the field, it’s almost like the rest of the team is asking, “Where’s Dybala?” It’s still early days and I don’t doubt Mourinho will eventually create a reliable plan B, but at the moment his side are reliant on Dybala, which is a concern given his injury history. Someone has to take the reins when he’s rested.
Nicolo Zaniolo is recovering from a dislocated shoulder earlier than expected, so this situation may resolve itself soon, but Roma needs production from players other than Dybala or Pellegrini.
Speaking of which…
Can Tammy catch fire?
With the caveat that the season is only six weeks away, Tammy Abraham’s second season in the capital has got off to a rather strange start. His shots per 90 minutes, shots per 90 minutes and total shots per 90 minutes are all up from last season’s pace, but his goals per shot, goals per shot and goals per 90 minutes are behind. his 2021-22 mark – and all despite playing at the same 0.60 xG per 90 minutes he managed last season.
His shot groupings are mostly the same – still mainly focused on high percentage areas – but he just can’t find the back of the net for some reason. He suffered a similar slow start last year, so this quirk will soon correct itself. With Zaniolo just back from injury and Dybala already carrying a heavy load, a Tammy Two Goals performance would alleviate many of the concerns we’ve discussed.
(This should read Matchday 7)