Pelinka sees Mattle’s position as stable
“I assume that Mattle will then get a fair chance within the party,” Pelinka said in an APA interview. He considers a result below 30 percent for the ÖVP to be “unlikely”. In any case, Mattle would not survive the latter politically and would therefore not end up in the governor’s chair, as it would represent a “catastrophe” for the Tyrolean ÖVP, explained Pelinka, who worked for decades at the University of Innsbruck and, not least because of this, is also an intimate connoisseur of Tyrolean politics -Landscape is.
The “3” in front of the result has now become a “strong symbol” in the public debate about the ÖVP performance, Pelinka justified his assessment. Losing the relative majority, i.e. first place, would be “not a catastrophe, but a catastrophe squared”, according to the political expert. That this WILL happen is “very unlikely” for him.
Pelinka: Mattle ‘has enough confidence’
“I assume Mattle has faith in the party. She knows she WILL lose votes and mandates. A result from 30 percent will be presentable, so Mattle will get away with it for the time being. Such a crash cannot be interpreted as a catastrophe, it will be presented as avoiding it, as a relative success. Then he will probably initially get a free hand within the party to form a government,” said the political scientist, convinced that the ÖVP chairman will not experience a “night of the long knives” despite a significant loss in the well double-digit range.
Mattle’s advantage is also that he is recorded in the ÖVP as a “loyal party soldier” who made himself available in a very difficult situation. In addition: Pelinka currently saw no one in such a constellation who could really impose themselves and Mattle could be dangerous. The sometimes traded Chamber of Commerce President Christoph Walser is said to be “not necessarily party-loyal”, not least because of various media statements.
According to Pelinka, it will be exciting for the ÖVP internally in the event that the People’s Party only has a two-party coalition with the FPÖ and the Freedom Party should show an “exorbitant increase in votes” at the expense of the blacks. Then Mattle would and had to try everything to forge a coalition of three – should the “3” stand: “Because he can’t get down from his rejection of a coalition with the Freedom Party.”
In such a case, however, the existing distortions within the state party would “become clearer”. Then an inner-party competitor could “stand up” and pull out the blue card. “But then it has to be someone who risks a lot,” says Pelinka. After all, FPÖ cooperation is currently not en vogue, contradicts the previous line of the Tyrolean ÖVP under Platter and would also counteract that of the federal party.
ÖVP should want a two-party coalition
Pelinka clearly expects the ÖVP to prefer a two-party coalition and sees Black and Red in pole position should such a constellation come about – after all, the SPÖ under Georg Dornauer is also vehemently pushing into the government as a junior partner. The political scientist doyen was sure that the previous sequel to black and green would no longer play. Arithmetically alone.
The expert was not very convinced – from a tactical point of view – of Mattle’s rejection of the FPÖ. This put them in a kind of “self-restraint” – and then gave the FPÖ a tactical advantage in the elections and also “greatly upgraded the SPÖ’s tactical negotiating position.”
“It was a kind of invitation to the SPÖ.” FPÖ state party leader Markus Abwerzger’s actions with the proclamation as a “province governor candidate” including a “duel” announcement and the letter to ÖVP voters and sympathizers including the attempt to “centre-right flank Winning over Pelinka considered the first to be remarkable and the second to be “clever” and logical. Pelinka did not believe that Mattle could win votes on a larger scale with his FPÖ rejection. It is probably “more of a zero-sum game” for the People’s Party.
Pelika gives opposition good chances
According to Pelinka, the FPÖ, List Fritz and NEOS will primarily benefit from the forecast migration of ÖVP voters – in addition to the non-voter camp. Least of all the Greens, since they have been in a coalition with the Platter-ÖVP for a long time and it makes no sense for disappointed black voters to switch there. And the SPÖ will probably only fish very slightly in this pond of voters, but they can hope for the previous non-voters and disappointed Greens.
The political scientist located the Social Democrats on course: “Dornauer has learned from his exorbitant mistakes in the early days and is now pursuing a course of ‘conspicuous inconspicuousness’. Show little profile, wait for the mistakes of others. Like Pamela Rendi-Wagner. That could lead to the position of deputy governor.”
For Pelinka, the Greens are a lot less on track: “They must be happy if they don’t lose anything.” He doubts that top candidate Gebi Mair will have an impact beyond his own electoral clientele, and there is also the problem that Greens in government responsibility traditionally belong to their own electorate rather lose. In view of the green government in the city of Innsbruck and the state of Tyrol, the following also applies to Tyrol: “More system parties are not possible.”
Pelinka is more optimistic for the Fritz and NEOS lists, which are very good in the polls, which, like the Greens, should both hope for a three-way variant in terms of power. The Fritz list has a “consensus-capable profile” and would not represent a taboo for the other parties. NEOS, on the other hand, would have to be careful not to mutate into the “survey emperor” as it has often done: “They also have to hope for a breakthrough in the greater Innsbruck area, as they are still primarily an urban party.”
Pelinka: ÖVP crash “long overdue”
Pelinka saw the blatant weakness of the Tyrolean ÖVP primarily as a matter of federal policy, but also identified socio-political reasons in the state. “I admire the Tyrolean ÖVP for putting off the inevitable crash for so long. To secure majorities for such a long time and to present the country as a Catholic farming country, although it has long since ceased to be such, the agricultural quota is low and the churches of this kind are already empty: that was a feat.”
The crash was a “long overdue”. The matter of course to win large majorities is “gone”. “The Wallnöfer-ÖVP is actually only really gone now,” stated Pelinka.