Pelinka: If the “3” stands, Mattle doesn’t fall
The political scientist Anton Pelinka assumes that Tyrol’s ÖVP chairman and state election top candidate Anton Mattle can hold on – should the People’s Party achieve a result with a “3” in the state election, i.e. at least 30 percent. “I assume that Mattle will then get a fair chance within the party,” Pelinka said in an APA interview. He considers a result below 30 percent for the ÖVP to be “unlikely”.
In any case, Mattle would not survive the latter politically and would therefore not end up in the governor’s chair, as it would represent a “catastrophe” for the Tyrolean ÖVP, explained Pelinka, who worked for decades at the University of Innsbruck and, not least because of this, is also an intimate connoisseur of Tyrolean politics -Landscape is. The “3” in front of the result has now become a “strong symbol” in the public debate about the ÖVP’s performance, Pelinka justified his assessment. A loss of the relative majority, i.e. the first place, would be “not a catastrophe, but a catastrophe squared”, according to the political expert. For him, however, it is “very unlikely” that this will happen.
“I assume that Mattle has enough trust in the party. The party knows that they WILL lose votes and mandates. A result of 30 percent or more will be presentable, so Mattle will get through it for the time being. Such a crash cannot be interpreted as a catastrophe Then he will probably initially get a free hand within the party to form a government,” said the political scientist, convinced that the ÖVP chairman will not experience a “night of the long knives” despite a significant drop in percentage points in the double-digit range. Mattle’s advantage is also that he was surprised in the ÖVP as a “loyal party soldier” who made himself available in a very difficult situation. In addition: Pelinka currently saw no one in such a constellation who could really impose themselves and Mattle could be dangerous. The sometimes traded Chamber of Commerce President Christoph Walser is considered “not necessarily party-loyal”, not least because of various media statements.
According to Pelinka, it will be exciting for the ÖVP internally in the event that the People’s Party only has a two-party coalition with the FPÖ and the Freedom Party should show an “exorbitant increase in votes” at the expense of the blacks. Then Mattle would and had to try everything to forge a three-way coalition – should the “3” stand: “Because he can’t get over his rejection of a coalition with the Freedom Party.” In such a case, however, the existing distortions within the state party would “become clearer”. Then an inner-party competitor could “stand up” and pull out the blue card. “But then it has to be someone who risks a lot,” says Pelinka. After all, FPÖ cooperation is currently not en vogue, contradicts the previous line of the Tyrolean ÖVP under Platter and would also counteract that of the federal party.
Pelinka clearly expects the ÖVP to prefer a two-party coalition and sees Black and Red in pole position should such a constellation come about – after all, the SPÖ under Georg Dornauer is also vehemently pushing into the government as a junior partner. The political scientist doyen was sure that the previous sequel to black and green would no longer play. Arithmetically alone. The expert is not very convinced – from a tactical point of view – of Mattle’s rejection of the FPÖ. This put them in a kind of “self-restraint” – and then gave the FPÖ a tactical advantage in the elections and also “greatly upgraded the SPÖ’s tactical negotiating position.”: “It was a kind of invitation to the SPÖ.” FPÖ state party leader Markus Abwerzger’s action with the proclamation as a “provincial governor candidate” including a “duel” announcement and the letter to ÖVP voters and sympathizers, including the attempt to win the “centre-right flank” for himself, held Pelinka in the first case for attention and second for “clever” and logical. Pelinka did not believe that Mattle could win votes on a larger scale with his FPÖ rejection. It is probably “more of a zero-sum game” for the People’s Party.
According to Pelinka, the FPÖ, List Fritz and NEOS will primarily benefit from the forecast migration of ÖVP voters – in addition to the non-voter camp. Least of all the Greens, since they have been in a coalition with the Platter-ÖVP for a long time and it makes no sense for disappointed black voters to switch there. And the SPÖ will probably only fish very slightly in this pond of voters, but they can hope for the previous non-voters and disappointed Greens.
The political scientist put the Social Democrats on course: “Dornauer has learned from his exorbitant mistakes in the early days and is now pursuing a course of ‘conspicuous inconspicuousness’. Showing little profile, waiting for the mistakes of others. Like Pamela Rendi-Wagner. That could lead to position of deputy governor.” The Greens are a lot less on track for Pelinka: “You have to be happy if you don’t lose anything.” He doubts that top candidate Gebi Mair will have an impact beyond his own constituency, and there is also the problem that Greens traditionally tend to lose in government responsibility in their own electorate. In view of the green government in the city of Innsbruck and the state of Tyrol, the following also applies to Tyrol: “More system parties are not possible.” Pelinka is more optimistic for the Fritz and NEOS lists, which are very good in the polls, which, like the Greens, should both hope for a three-way variant in terms of power. The Fritz list has a “consensual profile” and would not represent a taboo for the other parties. The NEOS, on the other hand, would have to be careful not to mutate into the “survey emperor” as they have often done: “They also have to hope for a breakthrough in the greater Innsbruck area, as they are still primarily an urban party.”
Pelinka saw the blatant weakness of the Tyrolean ÖVP primarily as a matter of federal policy, but also identified socio-political reasons in the state. “I admire the Tyrolean ÖVP that they postponed the inevitable crash for so long that the churches are already empty: that was a work of art.” The crash was a “long overdue one”. “The Wallnöfer-ÖVP is actually only really gone now,” stated Pelinka.