Effects of a storm that promise abundant rain in Portugal
Mainland Portugal is about to experience the first rainstorm of the climatological autumn. A storm (formerly Danielle) will cause a significant change in the weather in the next few hours, covering the entire Portuguese territory in the first half of the week, without exception. few locations will accumulate quite expressive Na.
Very active fronts and locally strong thunderstorms
At the time of writing this article, the west coast located opposite the Portuguese west coastbefore one channel one very humid subtropical airflow towards our country, a atmospheric river possessor of a large amount of precipitable waterso the associated fronts will be very active.
This robust Atlantic storm producing very active fronts that will download abundant rain from north to south of mainland Portugal in the first days of next week, between Monday (12) and Wednesday (14).
IT IS insufficient to end the severe drought that our country is going through, but it will contribute to a architect of the situation. As is usual in such situations, the fronts will wear out as long as were traveling the country from west to east, with the center of the storm remaining static around our coast. It will gradually decrease.
From early in the morning of Monday, the 12th, the first Atlantic front will arrive. When proceeding from west to east, it was predicted that the rain falls from east to west of mainland Portugal in the first half of the week, with abundance and sometimes with strong intensity. according to our trust model, no mainland region will escape this robust Atlantic storm.
Accumulations equal to or greater than 100 mm in 48 hours
The latest model update ECMWF the largest accumulations of rain in mountainous areas – such as the Montejunto-Estrela mountain system – but also in those that have atlantic facadesuch as the Minho and Metropolitan Areas of Porto and Lisbon, regions very exposed to wet flows from the southwest.
If this scenario is fulfilled, punctually, more than 150 or 200 mm in the first half of the next week – already counting on Wednesday (next 72 hours).
In regions south of the Tagus, such as Alentejo and Algarve coast, accumulations will finally be expressive after months without seeing a “water drop”, when may the days 50 mm few.
However, no sector does Guadiana Valley and at some points of east of Guarda districtthe amount of rain must be much less abundant than country.
Risk of intense thunderstorms between Monday and Wednesday
In addition, for monday, tuesday and wednesdaybut above all for the 12th and 13thit must be pointed out occurrence of thunderstorms to accompany the heavy periods of rain or showers. As we are subject to the eastern boundary of the storm, this will favor the convection developmentwith the electrical activity to be locally intense anywhere in our country.
In addition to the probable formation of thunderstorms, it does not rule out the risk of falling and hail, in addition to possible probable wind phenomena.
There is a good probability for the interior of the North and Center regionsbut you can also load other parts of the country – such as the Eastern Algarve, Greater Porto or Greater Lisbon – although more dispersed.
do not discard the formation and fall of hailstormshydrometeor that can cause great damage and destroy agricultural crops and infrastructure “in the twinkling of an eye”. Nor can one rule out the possibility of extreme wind phenomena on a local scale.
Insufficient to reverse drought, and other effects of this Atlantic storm
despite Recognized benefits and benefits that this time of abundant rain hits a country severely affected by droughtit is important to highlight the risks associated with a heavy rain event, which can sometimes be torrential. Such as in this articleexpression is not always expressed and sometimes it can even be quite harmful..
Since weathered we recorded that this episode of is an excellentbut will not be enough to reverse a severe drought that affects the entire country: we would have to live several successive times of great dimensions to remedy the situation.
Finally, remember that a from our shore we increase in the days before our shore. The intensifying ripple from the afternoon of the 12th, with waves between 2.5 and 3.5 meters of significant height. This situation will, predictably, last until the end of tuesday the 13th1 subside on day 4 subside on day.