EXPLANATOR: What you need to know ahead of Sweden’s election Sunday
Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson is fighting to keep her centre-right Social Democrats at the helm of a left-wing coalition but faces a strong challenge from the right.
Sweden is known for being a welfare society from cradle to grave, and Andersson wants to preserve the social protections that have long defined Sweden, and reverse some of the market-oriented changes from a previous government. Her party believes that some of the changes, such as government subsidies to private schools, create greater inequality.
The once-mighty Social Democrats have been in power since 2014. But as the party’s popularity declines from its 20th-century heyday, it has been forced to preside over a weaker government that relies more on other parties to make laws, a situation that has created political instability for the past eight years.
There are two large blocks, with four lots on the left and four on the right. The polls leading up to the election showed the two blocs at a near deadlock, with the outcome impossible to predict.
According to Swedish law, it is up to the party that wins the most mandates to form a government. Polls show that this is likely to be Andersson’s party, in which case it would be up to her first to try to form a coalition government with majority support in the legislature.
But if the left as a whole performs poorly, she may not be able to form a coalition. In that case, the baton would be passed to the second largest party to try to form a government.
WHICH PARTY IS IN NO. 2 SPOTS?
In the last election, in 2018, the Moderates led by Ulf Kristersson, a right-wing party, received the second most seats. The Conservative Party promotes a market economy, lower taxes and a smaller role for government in a country with a generous welfare state supported by high taxes.
But like the Social Democrats, and many other mainstream parties across Europe for that matter, the Moderates have also seen their popularity with voters decline amid a populist challenge coming from the far right.
The Sweden Democrats, a populist right-wing party that is tough on immigration and crime, entered parliament for the first time in 2010 and has grown steadily since then.
The party received 13% of the vote in 2018, becoming the third largest force in parliament. Measurements show it is likely to improve on Sunday’s showing.
Some Swedes describe the party as Trumpist and feel put off by the fact that it was founded by the far right decades ago, not entirely sure whether to trust it in its transformation into a more traditional conservative party.
The party is led by Jimmie Akesson, a 43-year-old former web designer who has been the driving force behind trying to moderate the party’s image.
However, the party has clearly taken part in the social mood. Its success can also be measured by the fact that other parties have approached its positions, as many Swedes believe that they can no longer bear the costs of the generous refugee policy of the past and seek a crackdown on crime.
Once treated as a pariah, other conservative parties have become increasingly willing to deal with the Sweden Democrats.
HOW SERIOUS IS THE CRIME IN SWEDEN?
Some of the immigrants who have been welcomed in Sweden in recent years have had difficulty integrating into Swedish society, which has led to segregated neighborhoods with high crime rates.
Gang violence usually occurs among criminal networks that deal in drugs or are involved in other illegal activities. However, there have been recent cases of innocent bystanders being injured. So far this year, 48 people have been killed by firearms in Sweden, three more than in all of 2021.
The fears sparked by constant news of shootings and explosions in disadvantaged neighborhoods have made crime one of the most pressing issues for voters.
– Shootings and bomb explosions have increased in recent years and (this violence) is now considered a major social problem. I wouldn’t say it’s as bad as Mexico, but we’re on our way, says Anders Sannerstedt, political scientist at Lund University in southern Sweden.
Andersson became Sweden’s first female prime minister less than a year ago — a late milestone for a country that in many ways is an example of gender equality.
“I was really proud,” said Ulrika Hoonk, a 39-year-old who voted early in Stockholm on Friday night, saying it took “far too long” for it to happen.
Surveys show that Andersson’s party is particularly popular among women, where men tend to vote more conservatively.
Even though Andersson is the first prime minister, there are still many women represented in government positions. Four party leaders are women and one party has a woman and a man who share the leadership. In parliament, the gender distribution has long been split approximately 50-50.
Several women interviewed this week said finally having a woman in top leadership was very important to them, and a factor they took into account when choosing which party to support.
Jan M. Olsen in Copenhagen, Denmark, contributed.