Sweden Plugin EV share of 46.1% in August
Sweden’s car market recorded a share of plug-in electric vehicles of 46.1% in August 2022, a slight decrease from 47.1% compared to the previous year. Full electrics increased their share, but plug-in hybrids lost more. Total car volumes were down 26% compared to pre-pandemic seasonal norms, to 20,576 units. The Volkswagen ID.4 was the best selling all-electric in August and 2nd ranked car overall.
August’s 46.1% combined plug-in result included 28.3% full electrics (BEVs) and 17.8% plug-in hybrids (PHEVs). This compares with the respective shares of 24.1% and 22.9% a year ago.
In unit volume terms, BEVs grew 21.6% year-on-year, while PHEVs shrank 19.6%. This combined with volume growth of 1.5% year-on-year for plugins, against the overall market growth of 3.6% (and thus a slight loss of plugin share). The changing fortunes between the two variants of the plugin are the result of changed incentive policies that we discussed in the June report and in the July report.
So far this year, plug-in volume is still growing – up 10% year-on-year, with BEVs up 68%, a strong growth rate. The relative strength of BEVs, and the plateauing (and perhaps now cooling) of PHEVs, can be seen in the powertrain evolution chart:
Best selling BEV cars
The Volkswagen ID.4 was the best selling BEV in August, and 2nd best seller overall, just behind the Toyota RAV4. The ID.4 delivered 654 units, slightly above its monthly average so far in 2022.
The Nissan Leaf and MG ZS took 2nd and 3rd places in the BEV rankings, both up significantly from their results in July.
Side note – The Toyota RAV4 (which was Sweden’s overall best-selling car in August) delivered around 90% plugless hybrid (HEV) variants and only 10% PHEV variants in August. So far this year, Toyota has about 8.5% of Sweden’s car market, but 78.5% of the country’s HEV market. In fact, 86.3% of Toyota’s Swedish sales this year are HEV cars, 7.9% are PHEV cars and only 1.1% are BEV cars. On the slightly positive side, only 4.7% of Toyota’s sales are internal combustion engines only, compared to 39.6% of the total internal combustion market.
Back to the August BEV rankings, there were no brand new faces in the top 20 list above, but relative newcomers the MG MG5, Cupra Born and VW ID.5 all had strong months and continue to climb the ranks.
To see through the ups and downs of monthly variations, let’s look at three months of results for the best-selling BEVs:
The Tesla Model Y leads, mainly still on the strength of its big push in June. The Model Y has actually improved its position compared to three months ago (March to May), when it was ranked 3rd.
However, its sibling, the Tesla Model 3, fell from 8th to 18th during the same period. Their relative performance may be due primarily to reverentially limited supply; Model 3s ordered today should arrive between January and March 2023, while the Model Y is in an earlier window from December to February. Both apparently have decent order books.
The MG brand saw two very strong climbers, ZS and MG5, with a combined volume up 2.3x compared to March to May. Volkswagen Group models also saw plenty of gains in rank, with the Skoda Enyaq, Audi e-tron, Cupra Born and VW ID.5 all climbing.
Here is a summary of the main climbers:
When some go up, others must go down.
The most notable drop compared to 3 months ago was the Kia Niro, which dropped from 1st to 6th place. However, most of it is not due to falling demand, but instead to supply shifting from the old version to the new version. The new Niro, with updated styling and interior, improved range and loading and vehicle loading capabilities, should return near the top of the charts in due course.
I’m not entirely sure what’s going on with the in-house brands Volvo and Polestar BEVs, but they seem to have had a torrid time recently. Perhaps this is mainly due to temporary regional allocation decisions rather than a serious drop in demand, only time will tell.
It’s worth noting that Sweden is a relatively small BEV market compared to the volumes in Germany, the UK and France, which typically see 2.5x to 4x the quantity. So whatever may happen locally with a particular make or model in Sweden cannot necessarily be seen to reflect the overall performance in Europe (or globally).
Sight
Sweden’s energy mix contains only 3% natural gas, so you can expect it to avoid most of the direct effects of the strong gas prices in Europe. However, electricity in Europe is traded internationally and wholesale electricity recently suffered a disaster €1,000 per MWh — or €1 per kWh. This is up over 1000% from a year ago!
Thus, electricity bills have also increased sharply in Sweden, as the country exports increasingly large amounts of energy to neighbors with acute shortages and prices have risen across the board.
Food price increases – which are now also common in Europe – are also felt in Sweden, and together with energy and general constraints in the supply chain have led to a Swedish inflation of 8.5%up from below 2% on an annual basis.
This economic environment is clearly putting pressure on consumer sentiment, which will continue to dampen new vehicle sales. Yet, even with rising energy prices, electric transportation remains significantly cheaper in long-term operating costs, compared to fossil fuels. This should mean that relative demand for plug-in EVs remains stronger than for non-plug-in vehicles.
Industrial supply chains are another issue shaping vehicle availability, according to Mobility Swedenthat has said recently of car market performance; “This year’s decline can mainly be attributed to the limited supply and long delivery times.”
It remains to be seen whether plugins are more or less affected by supply issues compared to the overall car market.
What are your thoughts on Sweden’s economic situation, car market and prospects for electric car growth this year? Head into the comments section below and join the discussion.
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