aggravation of the drought or return of the desired rain?
On the 1st of September, the climatological autumn starts. It will start with the entire territory devastated by a very serious drought and which was accentuated this summer in many hydrographic basins, which had repercussions in restrictive measures for the use of water in several municipalities.
Now that a new season is, from a climatological point of view, about to start, what do we tell the “cooked” models here at Meteored about the weather of the months of september, october and november in Portugal?
Some weather conditions around the
the climatological autumn (quarter September, October and November) it’s a very complex period from a meteorological and climatic point of view. The nights are longer, the temperature starts to dropmainly in the interior and in the North Region as frosts already appear more frequently in the high mountain areas.
Even though, sometimes the first half of this season can be an extension of summer. It’s losing its transitional traits. But, without a doubt, the role of the weather state is assumed by the rainsomething that can be seen by Climatology.
Longer nights, temperature dimensions, the first of the first frosts to a more generalized escalation in terms of territorial distribution, are some of the characteristics that occur in these climatological areas.
According to a normal climatology (1971-2000), a average (273.7 millimeters) From climatological autumns in Continental Portugal is much higher compared to summer (54.1 mm), and reveals a minimized percentage in relation to the spring (263.5 mm)therefore, the second wettest period of the year. The regions that accumulate the most are, in general, the Minho, the Porto Metropolitan Area and the Aveiro Region.
however last rain situations can take on a variable character at this time of year: since strong thunderstorms and hailone torrential rain depressions of isolated droplets at altitude, the atmospheric rivers (abbrego or southwesterly winds) until first atlantic depressions of the season. This year many people are looking forward to the arrival of water.
Early autumn will be warmer than usual
Based on the forecasts we handle at Meteored, in our reference model, September will be a warmer period than usual in most of the country, prolonging the heat that prevailed throughout the summer. In a small part of mainland Portugal, temperatures can register values between 1 and 1.5 ºC above average (Northeast Transmontano, most of Guarda district, eastern half of Castelo Branco district and east of Vila Real and Viseu districts).
In much of our country, it is expected positive temperature: 0.5 °C to 1 °C above normal in relation to the reference climatological average. This could correspond to almost all of the Minho regiondistrict of Harbornorth and east of the district of aveirowestern half of the districts of Real Village and viseueastern half of the district of Coimbrasmall part of the district Santarémwestern half of the district of White Castledistrict of Portalegredistrict of Évora and eastern half of the district of Beja.
Along the entire western coastline and Azores and Madeira archipelagos no anomalies are observed. Temperatures lower than usual delivery forecast for small areas of the districts of Lisbon, Setúbal, the entire Alentejo Coast and Western Algarve. Analyzing further, that is, October and November, as temperatures should trend towards values recorded patternas autumn unfolds.
In the quarter in mainland Portugal, September will be the one that will register higher temperatures than normal, while the next October and November should already register standard values.
In October, temperatures between 0.5 °C and 1 °C higher may be recorded. compared to normal values for the time (especially inland), while for November, there are no anomalies in terms of the average month in any part of the Continent, the same applies to Madeira. Nonetheless, the azoresshould register a period warmer than usual (positive thermal anomaly 0.5°C to 1°C) in November.
Autumn may continue in the tone of recent months: even lower than normal
Rain is the most desired weather element right now, especially for those who are professionally dependent. This way, it is very necessary that it arrives here in abundance to alleviate the severe drought that the country is going through. Despite the depression of polar latitudes predicted for the first days of September in mainland Portugal, the news is not very good for now.
In order to have a perspective of normal rainfall throughout the continental territoryexcept in small parts of the West and Alentejo coast, in most of the Alentejo and throughout the Algarve. For October and November everything indicates that the drought seeks to worsen, meaning that the rest of autumn could be much drier than usual. In many regions, already quite considerable due to the drought, the very delicate from a water storage point of view.
Single paragraph azorean archipelago three distinct scenarios with regard to measurement are appreciated: a September without significant anomalies, an October drier than usual (negative anomaly -5 to -20 mm) and a tripartite november in the different island groups. The Occidental (Corvo and Flores – drier than normal), the Central and the Oriental within the usual, with the exception of Pico Island (Central Group – minimize more rain in its eastern part).
As for the WoodIn general, it is envisaged a drier than usual quarter, especially in September and October.
“Storm Shield” in the Atlantic?
The forecasts that we manage at Meteored indicate that, in principle, many Atlantic storms or storms with strong winds will not reach our latitude, since maps anticipate that the anticyclone will be a ring road between the Azores and Central Europe, thus blocking the arrival of lowland centers.
Despite everything, a likely more wavy and dynamic jet streamwhich would result in potential cold air pockets or isolated depressions at altitude in the vicinity of Iberian Peninsula.