Climate change, Emissions | Climate scientist on temperatures in southern Europe: – A careful migration will start
This summer, extreme weather has ravaged Europe. Britain sounds a drought alert and the continent has broken a grim record for forest fires.
– There are many who have experienced more than desired temperatures when they went on holiday, says Hans Olav Hygen of the Meteorological Institute to Nettavisen.
Hygen, on the other hand, believes that we in Norway will not experience similar conditions.
– There will not be that type of heat wave in Norway. The chance of Norway reaching 40 degrees is very small. This summer we have had a dry summer in Eastern Norway.
– Drought in Eastern Norway in the summer is a real possibility going forward, he adds.
But what do the heat waves and extreme weather in southern Europe mean for Norway?
Start buying up homes in Norway
If you only look at how climate change affects tourism, you can imagine that this could be positive for our cool country.
– But there are an awful lot of other factors that influenced this, such as the war in Ukraine and tougher climate policy. Long flights are going to be too expensive and cruise ships will have to be discontinued due to climate concerns, says climate researcher Carlo Aall at Vestlandsforsking to Nettavisen.
He believes that in future we will get more Swedish and Dutch tourists, and fewer Asians and Americans.
At the same time, he points out that there may be demographic changes in Norwegian society that we will notice.
– I would like to believe that as it gets warmer and warmer in southern Europe, a careful migration will start. First and foremost by rich people who start buying up housing in Norway.
– I have friends who have started doing it, including from Israel.
Migration will take place in a slightly less dramatic way earlier than what we have begun to call climate refugees, Aall points out.
– It goes a little slower, and you plan for it. You might be able to buy an apartment in Norway, and then suddenly you live half the year.
Aall points out that there are studies that estimate that you will see changes in tourist flows in Europe due to climate change around the year 2040.
– I think it will come earlier than 2040, and faster than we predicted. I think we’ll start to see that in 2030.
2030 is also the year in which the world must have managed to halve emissions in order to reach the 1.5 degree target.
– Either we want to make it, and then we have to turn violently with measures. Otherwise, we won’t get it done, and it will scare the wits out of people like me.
Read also: Gloomy climate prediction for Norwegians’ southern European holiday: – It’s going to get worse
Not as much fun with a dry southern Europe
Climate scientist The hygge says that what is unfolding in Europe now is what the institute has been warning about for 20 years.
– We see that what we have announced is starting to happen. There will be many warm years there and high temperatures.
Hygen wishes, as we have known about climate change for a long time, that it was addressed earlier.
– We should have done more sooner. The climate trend for my time is set. We will have little impact on measures we may take in the next 30-40 years. What we cut today will contribute to a less challenging climate situation at the end of the century.
He himself is satisfied that climate research has managed to be so precise.
– We managed to capture the main trends 20 years ago, says Hygen, but at the same time points out that the Institute has not captured all the details.
Hygen believes that there are certainly some climate surprises that we don’t know about.
– We mostly bring bad news.
But like Aall, he believes in changing travel habits.
– I think we have to expect people to do that. It is not certain that people think it will be fun with a dry southern Europe.
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