PSG, City and Madrid champions, not Milan… CIES’ hopes for the top 5
According to CIES buyers, Paris, Manchester City, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich will retain their title, but AC Milan will not.
New season, new champions? No. In its latest weekly letter, the Football Observatory (CIES) is one of its assessors for the 2022-2023 financial year in the “five major European championships”. And according to CIES, all defending champions – with the exception of Milan – will retain their assets.
To carry out this study, the CIES relied on “a statistical model including the performance of the teams over the previous two seasons, the capital experience of current players and the expenditure of clubs on the transfer market”, explained the Observatory. soccer. Let’s break it all down…
Ligue 1: Paris champion, Marseille on the podium
As the start of the season proves, PSG seem well on their way to retaining their title. And CIES obviously sees the Rouge et Bleu win Ligue 1 for the eleventh time in their history. They will be accompanied by Monaco in the Champions League, while OM will play in the play-offs. Behind, we find Lyon (4th), Rennes (5th), Lille (6th), Lens (7th) and Nice (8th).
What about the four relegated, when the L1 will increase to 18 teams next season? CIES sees Angers (17th), Troyes (18th), Clermont (19th) and Ajaccio (20th) descend to Ligue 2. Only one promoted will therefore make the rise according to the estimates of the Football Observatory, because Toulouse (13th) and Auxerre (16th) will avoid the last four places.
Premier League: City ahead of Liverpool, Arsenal in the Europa League
It is Arsenal who have made the best start to the season, with three wins in three Premier League games, but it is Manchester City that CIES sees retaining their title. Moreover, the Gunners will not even have the chance to taste the Champions League since the estimates give the fifth, behind Liverpool (2nd), Chelsea (3rd) and the sworn enemy Tottenham (4th).
Europa League for Arsenal, therefore. And the Londoners could be accompanied by… Manchester United. Despite zero points in three games, CIES believes that the Red Devils will finish just behind the top 5, and this sixth place could qualify for Europe depending on the identity of the winners in the various National Cups.
Liga: Madrid champion, Barça only third
In Spain, despite its XXL recruitment, FC Barcelona will end up behind Real Madrid according to information from CIES. And even behind Atlético, since the Blaugrana are announced third, with a new title for the Merengue. To accompany all these beautiful people in the Champions League, it will be Sevilla.
And not Nabil Fekir’s Bétis, who will have to settle for 7th place, behind Villarreal (6th) and Real Sociedad (5th). Finally, direction the “second division” for Majorca, Cadiz and Girona.
Serie A: Milan preceded by Inter, Mourinho and Roma without LDC
With the Premier League, it will undoubtedly be the most disputed championship. And Inter Milan, who have won their first two Serie A games, are no doubt signing straight away for the CIES ranking, which sees them take over the Scudetto from AC Milan.
The Rossoneri will fail in 2nd place and will therefore be satisfied with qualification for the Champions League with Napoli and Juventus. On the other hand, bad news for AS Roma of José Mourinho, who only finished sixth in the CIES ranking, just behind Atalanta Bergamo. For the descent in Serie B: the two promoted Cremonese and Lecce, without forgetting the Salernitana of Franck Ribéry.
Bundesliga: Bayern, who else?
Ligue 1, Bundesliga: same fight, that is to say no suspense for the tire. Three victories in three games, 15 goals scored and only one conceded… Munich will once again roll on their championship, and the CIES obviously sees the Bavarians retain their title. With Dortmund (2nd), Leipzig (3rd) and Bayer Leverkusen (4th) for the other qualifying places in the Champions League.
When it comes to relegations, CIES has little hope for Bochum. Swept 7-0 by Bayern Munich this weekend, neighboring Dortmund should finish 18th, and Hertha Berlin, who saved their skin in the play-offs last season, will accompany them at the lower level. Schalke 04, D2 champion last season, goes through the play-offs.